Bibi Fears Iran Nuclear Deal Close

May 30—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu fears that negotiators from the Trump Administration and Iran are close to sealing a new deal that would end Iran's development of a nuclear weapon. The deal, the framework for which both sides have agreed upon, would permanently bar the development of weapons-grade uranium and weapon development, while allowing Iran to maintain its civilian nuclear power program.

What has not been worked out yet is exactly what to do with Iran's robust program that enriches uranium, ostensibly for use in its nuclear reactor, which is well below weapons grade. Originally, Trump and his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had said Iran could keep its enrichment program and that they would put in place a robust inspection program, much more vigorous than the already vigorous program that came with the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump left in 2018. More recently, both have said they want to eliminate the enrichment program in the new deal—something Iran has said is a "red line" that they would never accept. And the talks, while productive on all other matters, stood at an impasse.

Netanyahu’s Opposition and Military Threats

Netanyahu, while being forced by Trump to "support" the quest for a peaceful solution to this issue, has repeatedly stated that he does not feel one is possible and that Israel retains the right to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities to totally end the threat. While intelligence, both from the Mossad and CIA, says that Israel could launch a raid even without the logistical and tracking support of the U.S., doubts remain that Israel can wipe out Iran's scattered program. At best, they might delay bomb development.

But this week, Witkoff offered Trump a new plan—agree to an interim plan that would leave a heavily-inspected enrichment program in place for now, until a better solution could be found. Some new ideas have reportedly been put on the table, including increased support, both financially for Iran's peaceful nuclear program and with new, non-proliferating technologies, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Another idea under discussion would have enrichment take place in a facility run co-jointly by the U.S. and Iran's strategic partner, Russia, which would also hold onto Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium.

Netanyahu’s Backchannel Moves

When Bibi found this out, he sent his trusted ally, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, and Mossad chief David Barnea—first to Rome, where negotiations were taking place, and then on May 28 to Washington—to urge that the interim deal be abandoned and to warn that he would bomb Iran, even if a deal were in place.

Trump preemptively responded, revealing to the world May 28 that he had a rough telephone call with Netanyahu to tell him that he had better not say or do anything to foul up the negotiations. "It does not make sense for him to do that," the President told reporters.

And indeed, it does not—but you are not dealing with a sane person here, but a messianic lunatic who sees Iran as the evil Israel must defeat to survive.

"If he crosses the line and attacks without Trump's permission," said a source close to the White House, "Bibi is finished, and so would be Israel, as Trump will pull all aid, and even support sanctions. So, no, I don't think Bibi would do it. I know he is worried that Trump would take the interim accord, declare a major victory, and not continue to negotiate. But that won't happen either."

Iran Looks to Russia for Assurance

For the time being, Witkoff and Trump are using Bibi's threats to push the Iranians toward concluding the interim deal.

And sources report that the Iranians themselves have doubts that Trump can control Bibi. These sources indicate they decided to ask opinions on the matter from the Russians and Vladimir Putin. They were reportedly told that "you can trust Trump and Witkoff."