Chinese, Taiwanese Analysts: U.S. Hegemony Collapsing; Cross-Strait Cooperation Is the Way Forward
April 13—Prof. Zhang Weiwei, dean of Fudan University’s China Research Institute, and Chien Joanna Lei, a Taiwanese politician and senior researcher at Hainan University’s Belt and Road Research Institute, delivered a joint assessment of the collapse of U.S. hegemony and its implications for Taiwan in an April 11 episode of “Cross-Strait Roundtable School.” The transcript was published by China’s Observer Network.
Zhang, who debated Francis Fukuyama in 2011 and predicted at the time that the U.S. would elect a leader worse than George W. Bush and that the “Arab Spring” would become an “Arab Winter,” argued that the Iran war has confirmed the end of the “end of history” thesis. He cited the theologization of U.S. decision-making, highlighting Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s invocations of divine mandate for the war, which Zhang sees as evidence that the American system lacks the rationality its own democratic theory presupposes. He quoted a now-popular formulation: a hundred years ago, China represented the past, Europe the present, and America the future; today, Europe represents the past, America the present, and China the future.
Zhang, a frequent participant in EIR and Schiller Institute events, said U.S. hegemony has collapsed on three fronts simultaneously: militarily, the U.S. cannot protect the Gulf states in which its bases are located; in its alliance system, no ally joined the U.S. call for a joint escort through the Strait of Hormuz; and morally, the U.S. has lost all credibility. He invoked Chinese Marshal Liu Bocheng’s maxim that a commander who fails to understand five factors—the enemy, his own forces, his mission, terrain, and timing—will surely be defeated, and said Trump understood none of them in going into Iran.
Zhang also responded to the possibility of U.S.-China military conflict by pointedly remarking: “China’s economy is 50 times larger than Iran’s, and China’s military strength is at least 50 times stronger than Iran’s. I hope the U.S. military can learn from the Iranian conflict.”
Former KMT legislator Chien Joanna Lei focused on Taiwan, identifying three “strategic misalignments” in the DPP’s approach under President William Lai. First, a misalignment of strategic position: Lai has turned Taiwan from a potential bridge into a frontline conflict point in U.S.-China-Japan-Taiwan relations. Second, a misalignment of security logic: Taiwan’s adoption of a “peace through strength” posture is absurd given the military gap with the mainland. Third, a misalignment of capability: by outsourcing security to external forces, Taiwan has lost the ability to make independent decisions, making this the most dangerous misalignment of all.
Lei stressed that KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s visit to the mainland earlier this month is critical for reestablishing a substantive second track of cross-strait communication, warning that without it, the outside world may assume the DPP speaks for all of Taiwan. She noted that during the Ma Ying-jeou era (2008–2016), 10 million people traveled back and forth across the Strait annually. Lei said she remains confident the two sides will become one family, and urged young Taiwanese to look at the mainland’s development in AI and other new technologies as the path forward for their generation.