Clock Ticking on End of Iran Ceasefire, Deal to End War
April 20—President Donald Trump has sent his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad for a new round of direct talks with the Iranians to end the bloody war initiated by the Butcher of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, who suckered the U.S. into joining the fight. Sources close to the White House say that it is Trump's number one priority to end war in the days ahead.
But even as Witkoff and an American team, which originally was reported to not include Vice President JD Vance, who headed the last round of talks, but may be led by him again, arrive in the Pakistani capital, there has been a ramp-up of tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed again, after briefly reopening as part of a 10-day ceasefire agreement to stop Israeli attacks in Lebanon and the West Bank. The Iranians say they closed the critical choke point on energy traffic in the Persian Gulf in response to a Trump-announced blockade of traffic to and from Iranian ports, which has seen the U.S. fire on and seize an Iranian freighter.
The Iranians, who threatened retaliation for the U.S. action, initially said they will not participate in any talks with the U.S. as long as the blockade is in effect. However, just hours ago, Iranian officials were said to be "positively reviewing" participation in the talks and may send a delegation later tonight or tomorrow; sources report that Iran may have been assured that the seized vessel and crew would be returned to Iran, and that the blockade would be lifted while negotiations took place.
With a two-week ceasefire in Iran set to expire at midnight tomorrow, the British and Zionist press are almost gleeful in expecting the talks to collapse or not take place, and the fighting to resume. But sources close to the White House say this will not take place, and that Trump knows what he is doing.
A ‘Trumpian’ Approach to Deal-Making
"The mistake most people make in trying to understand how Trump is proceeding is to call this diplomacy," said one source, who has been involved with the complex negotiations. "It is not just diplomacy, but a Trumpian brand of deal-making. It involves creating tension, and even conflicts, which can be used to shape a deal—a deal which might not otherwise take place. You create conflicts in which you give things up, to set the deal process in motion or keep it going.
"It also involves menacing rhetoric and threatened dire actions," the source said, pointing to various Trump real estate deals. "He considers threats as part of the deal making process, a view that is not shared by many diplomatic negotiators. They would never threaten to 'end the civilization' of the people on the other side of the table. Trump just does that.
"That is how you have to understand the U.S. blockade," the source continued. "It is something that is a great annoyance to Iran, which needs to move its goods and oil to have cash. The U.S. really doesn't need the blockade to accomplish anything. So, to make a deal, you can give it up 'temporarily,' and then Iran opens the Strait and comes to Islamabad. That's how Trump does deals. Steve [Witkoff] knows this from his real estate experience."
Nuclear Negotiations and Sanctions Strategy
The nuclear deal has similar points where the U.S. position is 'extremis' and where it can compromise or even give in, to make things work, the source said. "And these things are being worked on in advance of new talks through Pakistani and other mediators. For example, Iran says it will not give up its enriched uranium to the U.S., as we have demanded. So, Trump went to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and asked can you take it? And you have the Russians offering to do so publicly. It is an offer that Tehran can't really refuse.
"The whole idea of suspending Iran's nuclear program for a number of years is a similar mechanism," said the source. "It allows Iran to not have to give up its rights to enrichment, which they say they will not do. Meanwhile, you can argue about the timeframe."
On sanctions relief, which this and other sources say is priority number one for Iran, the U.S. had for years argued for staged or gradual relief. But the Trump team says it will grant total relief on signing—with the knowledge that they could always snap the sanctions back into effect if something went wrong. Trump immediately understood the importance of this to the overall deal and Iran's willingness to go along with it.
Final Push as Deadline Nears
Diplomacy has its purpose, said the source. "It serves the process of deal-making, not the other way around. Trump knows what he is doing and is running the show here. It is difficult to get Iran to trust the process, after Trump was convinced by Bibi, twice while things were being negotiated, to drop bombs and go to war. Trump knows he was played for sucker this last time and dragged into precisely the kind of war he had campaigned against, an endless no-win bloody meatgrinder.
Trump is handling whatever negotiations will take place with Iran, and he is not doing so, according to several sources, in consultation with the Israelis. The ceasefire in Iran and the one in Lebanon caught an angry Bibi by surprise. Netanyahu had to go along, even though he supported neither agreement. If a deal is reached with Iran, Trump will force Bibi to sign on.
Things will become clearer over the next 48 hours, the source said. "A deal is certainly possible." Trump has said that an extension of the ceasefire deal is also possible, but that he does not believe it will be necessary because there will be a peace plan.