Colby Plots Global Shift in Energy Traffic
May 14—While President Donald Trump sat down for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Eldridge Colby, the real "brains" behind U.S. national security strategy, was back in his Pentagon office assessing changes that he sees in global energy traffic that, he claims, have actually given the U.S. greater strategic leverage on his geopolitical chessboard.
Colby’s View of the Iran War
Colby, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is what passes for "brains" these days in a Pentagon led by the messianic Zionist drunk, Secretary of War "Crusader Pete" Hegseth, who Trump brought along with him to China.
Colby was not in favor of the U.S. joining Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's regime-change war in Iran. According to sources, he recognized that it was a fool's errand, which could not be accomplished by a bombing campaign and appeals for an Israeli-orchestrated uprising against the mullahs. He accurately forecast that Iran could weather "Epic Fury" and any future misnamed campaigns contemplated by Hegseth and Trump to end a war which should never have been started.
Energy Flows and Strategic Realignment
Colby, sources reported, had accurately calculated that Iran would respond to the U.S. and Israeli attack asymmetrically by shutting down traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and scrambling the flow of global energy. And while he was not an enthusiast for the war, Colby was prepared to seek a strategic advantage for the U.S. in changing where the world gets its energy. China, Japan, Korea, India, and Pakistan, and other Asian economic powers, got their oil from the Gulf and now could no longer reliably expect to do that again, even if the Strait were reopened. In addition, there is the question of transit fees demanded by Iran that, if paid, will make Persian Gulf oil and natural gas more expensive. Europe and Africa also rely heavily on the Gulf for energy supplies.
There is no shortage, globally, of oil and natural gas. So, if you don't get supplies from the Gulf, you can get them from somewhere else. With Russia remaining under sanctions because of the Ukraine conflict, it is not a reliable source. Even under limited sanction relief, this is still the case.
Western Hemisphere Energy Strategy
For Colby, the idea was to send the energy-hungry tanker fleets to the Western Hemisphere, to the United States, but also to Venezuela, whose oil industry the U.S. controls after the successful removal of the Maduro regime by the U.S. military. Colby supported that action, which was never really about alleged drug traffic to the U.S. and was really an old-fashioned snatch of the oil and natural gas assets like in the early days of the 20th century.
Mexico can also benefit from the shift away from the Gulf producers. How much will depend on what deals Colby and Trump can strike on U.S. basing rights in Mexico, sources report.
U.S. intelligence reports, buttressed by private assessments, say that it might be possible to permanently shift 5-8% or more of the current traffic through the Gulf to the U.S. and Western Hemisphere sources. This would include a big increase in trade with China on energy purchases, which are being discussed in the talks in Beijing.
Sources say that it was Colby's crew which came up with the strategy of blockading traffic to Iranian ports in response to the shutdown by Iran of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. These sources report that this was not just a response to the Iranians but is part of the Colby strategy to force energy traffic out of the Gulf and towards safer Western harbors.
Risks of Escalation and the ‘Colby Plan’
At this point, Colby does not favor dangerous escalations in military activity that could put Iran's and Gulf states' oil and natural gas fields at risk. But if Kharg Island were seized or destroyed, these sources say, "you are talking about a more or less permanent change in the flow of energy resources, that would be, in the long run, very beneficial to the U.S."
There is a recognition by others about what dangerous game is afoot here with the "Colby Plan," said a source, and counteractions are already being taken.
India, BRICS, and Global Pushback
For example, India (population 1.477 billion) is the third-largest oil consumer in the world and imports 87% of its total consumption, with half of that historically coming through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this extraordinary import dependency, gas prices at the pump have not gone up at all in India—but only because, at the instruction of the government, major state retailers have frozen retail rates, and the government has taken the financial hit instead. That means that India’s $175 billion spent on oil imports in 2025 will rise by at least 50% to about $265 billion in 2026. Small wonder that threats of speculative financial warfare against India are already surfacing, such as the Bloomberg report that “a widening current account deficit will put pressure on the rupee, raise external borrowing needs, and make the economy more vulnerable to global capital outflows.”
India will not suffer such attacks passively. India is this year’s rotating chair of the BRICS grouping of nations, with its 11 members and 10 partner nations, which is committed to building a new, more just global economic system. The BRICS Foreign Ministers are meeting now in New Delhi on May 14-15. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hit the nail on the head in a May 12 interview before departing for New Delhi, when asked about the policies coming from Washington and the West:
“They put pressure on everyone, demanding that they should not purchase Russian oil, and this is unfair play. These are colonial, or neocolonial, methods. ‘You shouldn’t purchase cheap Russian oil. You should purchase my expensive oil, and buy expensive LNG from the U.S. We will rule the world by controlling global energy,’” Lavrov said, adding that not all countries “cave in to such pressure.”
Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports that China has negotiated safe passage for its ships and tankers through the Strait with the Iranian military. An Iranian official stated that the Strait is open for traffic provided ships and nations coordinate their passage with the Iranian military.