French Government Set To Collapse Sept. 8

Aug. 29—The announcement Aug. 26 by Prime Minister François Bayrou that he will call for a vote of confidence of the National Assembly on Sept. 8, to ratify a €44 billion austerity cut in the 2027 budget, is a death sentence for his government, given the overall opposition to those cuts and the fact that the government does not have a majority. If this happens, President Emmanuel Macron will be left with three options: 1) find a new Prime Minister acceptable to all the factions, which is quite unlikely; 2) dissolve the National Assembly and organize new legislative elections, hoping to get a new majority; or 3) resign as President.

The last three governments—Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron—are known for having granted massive “public aid” with no conditions to the largest private companies, to the tune of €211 billion per year. Now, there is not only no attempt to “claw back” those gifts, but instead the government plans to impose cutbacks which target retirees and the working class to make them pay for its largesse. Bayrou’s decision to eliminate two days of paid national holidays has crystallized the anger of the population.

Following Bayrou’s announcement, Mélenchon’s party, the Socialist Party and the Green Party, on the left, and Le Pen’s National Gathering, on the far right, announced that they will not vote in favor of the government, leaving no hope that the government will survive.

At the same time, a call for “blocking all” (general strike against) the institutions starting on Sept. 10, launched through social media, has gained such popularity that the left-wing parties in the National Assembly and the Senate—LFI, the Socialists, the Greens, and the Communist Party—all endorsed it in the last days. And, all the trade unions will meet Sept. 1 to make a decision.

While it is not totally clear where this initiative came from, the general profile is that of a second round of a "Yellow Vest" citizens movement. Gatherings have already started in the countryside: in Orleans, in Burgundy (Côte d’Or, Saône-et-Loire, Dijon), Marseille and the Paris outskirts. Slogans are against the austerity measures: “the blocking of wage increases for a year,” and “the €5 billion cut from the health budget.” Participants in the meeting at Orléans were essentially old-time militants and former Yellow Vests, calling for raising wages, defense of public services, and for a citizens referendum.

The threat of a social explosion and the instability in the institutions, provoked a wave of speculation against the French bank stocks, which suffered big losses. Société Générale fell 6.84%, Crédit Agricole 5.44%, and BNP Paribas 4.23%. The government is using this danger and the threat of an IMF intervention, as in Greece, to try to ram its budget cuts through.