Furious Diplomacy Tries to Offer Trump Off Ramp in Iran War

March 15—Furious diplomatic efforts are underway to reach a ceasefire and then a long-term agreement to end the U.S.–Israeli war with the Islamic Republic before the violence and destruction spin further out of control. As of this writing, President Donald Trump is not prepared to take the off ramp being offered by various Gulf State negotiators in touch with Iranian leaders in Tehran, sources say, as he looks for a "better deal."

In commenting March 14 on the proposals in a telephone call with NBC News, Trump stated that Iran appears ready to make a deal to end the war, but he is not yet ready “because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” though he declined to say what those terms would be. When asked what the terms of a potential deal to end the war would be, the President responded: “I don’t want to say that to you.” But he agreed that a commitment from Iran to completely abandon any nuclear ambitions would be part of it.

Putin’s Potential Role in a Broader Peace Initiative

A source close to the White House said that Trump was buying time until he sees if Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is reportedly in direct contact with Tehran, can come up with a plan for a broader regional peace conference that would seek an end to Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region, as well as provide a basis to rebuild the economic damage the war has created—not just in Iran, but in neighboring countries and Israel—while also establishing a regional framework to support a deal to end the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon.

The source said that the President wants to hear from the Russians that Iran’s leadership will back such a plan, and that it will not be sabotaged by the theocracy that has put the son of the hardline assassinated Supreme Leader in power. Trump has been told that the new leadership, backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), might want to prolong the war to consolidate its power. (In the interview, Trump said that he thought the new Supreme Leader was alive, despite the fact that he has not appeared in public and has been rumored to be dead or severely incapacitated.)

U.S. Concerns Over Khamenei’s Threats and Demands

Other sources report that Trump has so far chosen to ignore the belligerent threats contained in a written statement read on Iranian TV in the name of the new Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, which demanded the U.S. pull all its forces out of the region, close all its bases, remove all sanctions, and pay reparations. What is not being ignored is the statement that unless all this is agreed to within 60 days, Iran would invoke clauses in mutual defense treaties with Russia and China, totally close the Strait of Hormuz, and "develop and deploy a fully capable strategic nuclear deterrent."

The U.S. has been assured by both Russia and China that they have no intention of fighting alongside Iran and that they do not support Iran's claimed right to develop nuclear weapons.

Internal and Political Pressure on Trump to End the War

"There are forces inside Iran who recognize there needs to be a change in Iran's relationship to the world," said the source. "There was already the basis for a nuclear deal with Washington before all this started. It was Israel and Bibi Netanyahu who forced the deal to be scuttled. We are fighting this war for the Israelis, and Trump needs to get out from under their thumb. He also needs to break with the Christian Zionist cult that infects his administration and the military, that backs the messianic Zionist Bibi and his crowd in their bid to the destroy "the evil empire of Iran.".

"There are important leaders of the MAGA crowd who have told him that unless he ends the war quickly, and breaks with Bibi, the GOP will be obliterated in the midterms. No matter what he says to the contrary, he knows that to be true. So, he will wait a bit and see what Putin and others can come up with for his off ramp. I think he will take it."

Limited Strikes, Oil Flow Disruptions, and the Strait of Hormuz

The source also reported that the media has not covered a statement from Tehran this morning that they have not closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping—only to U.S. and Israeli traffic. This comes after Trump approved only limited strikes on the Kharg Island oil hub that left the oil infrastructure intact. This and other sources say Trump rejected Israeli demands that, if Iran continued to target Israel, the whole island should be destroyed.

Meanwhile, Trump is continuing to talk to allies about putting together a multinational naval force that could escort shipping through the Strait.

Sources say that the main issue choking off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf generally is not the Iranians, who have ineffectively attacked a few ships, but the London-based maritime insurance providers who have refused to issue policies covering ships carrying oil and other energy products.

The White House is considering its own plan to issue such insurance, as the British government has refused to intervene with the City of London.

Oil Market Speculation and Political Fallout

Also, the push-up in the price of oil, sources report, does not reflect any shortage of crude at refineries at this time. The upward price surge is a product of the totally unregulated spot market, where future contracts are bid and traded by speculators and not end users. The spot market is also based in London, and the British government has traditionally refused to either shut it down or place even temporary controls on it, citing the vital role of the huge so-called petrodollar flows it creates within the global banking and financial system.

The White House has already expressed concern over the jump in prices at the pump since the war began—almost $1.00 higher. Those price increases have absolutely nothing to do with the supply of oil and gasoline at U.S. refineries. The U.S., unlike in the 1970s when Arab nations and OPEC declared an embargo on shipments to the U.S., is no longer dependent on oil from the Middle East and is a net exporter of oil and natural gas.

The White House realizes that American consumers are being gouged by the oil companies, but so far, it has chosen not to act. Sources say that Trump, under pressure from MAGA supporters, might reverse course on this, including slapping controls on energy pricing, but he does not think that will be necessary, as the war will end soon.

“I think they’ll go lower than they were before, and I had them at record lows,” Trump said about gas prices in the NBC interview, promising that they would drop soon after the war in Iran ends. “There’s so much oil, gas — there’s so much out there, but you know, it’s being clogged up a little bit. It’ll be unclogged very soon.”