High Stakes Drama in Oman?

Feb. 4—If the media reports are to be believed, tomorrow’s meeting in Muscat, Oman between a U.S. team of negotiators led by President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and an Iranian team led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with leaders present from Sunni Muslim nations in the region including President Recep Erdogan of Turkey, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al‑Thani, and leaders from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan, is the “last best chance” to avoid a war that will surely come with a U.S. strike on Iranian targets. (The talks were originally scheduled for Istanbul, but were moved today to Muscat, Oman.)

So as the world anxiously awaits the outcome, the negotiators will go behind closed doors and talk.

But why should media reports ever be believed? Sources, some with more than 50 years of diplomatic and analytical experience in the region, say that it is far more likely that the outlines of a deal have already been worked out through backchannel discussions. And that, it is hoped, a dangerous war has already been averted — at least for the time being.

[Witkoff also discussed with Bibi the next moves in implementing Phase 2 of the Trump Gaza peace plan, which will involve the start of reconstruction, and the creation of a Palestinian police force and provisional government, after the deployment of an International Security Force. In past meetings, he had already gotten a concession from Netanyahu to allow Phase 2 to begin, following the return the last hostage remains last week--despite the fact that Hamas has yet to be disarmed.]

Backchannel Contacts Shape the Real Negotiations

Witkoff had been in contact with Araghchi throughout this period, when the latter reached out to him to say, in the middle of mass protests against the regime’s economic policy taking place across Iran, that the civilian government was ready to negotiate a peace deal on the nuclear weapons issue that would give Trump what he wanted. These sources say that the Iranians want to avoid any kind of war, which might give cover to continued provocations directly organized by the Israelis and their agents inside Iran, which number almost 100,000 people. While the regime remains stable, including the ancient 86‑year‑old Ayatollah Ali‑Khamanei, who even many of the mullahs say has lost touch with his people, they might not so easily put down more insurrectionary activity on the street — and these sources say Israel is working overtime to get something moving.

Trump had reportedly called off a strike scheduled for Jan. 14, when the demos died down and the killing of people in the street and the executions stopped, just as the Iranians had told him they would do; he was also in receipt of an intelligence report that said that any attack on Iran would not only fail to topple the mullahs but would strengthen them. Now Trump has pivoted off protecting peaceful protests to getting an Iran nuclear deal signed. And if the reports from Witkoff and others are accurate, the Iranian leadership has been greenlighted by the Ayatollah to make a deal.

Iran Prepared to Offer Major Concessions on Enrichment, U.S. Would Lift Some Sanctions

According to source reports, the Iranians will make concessions to Trump on the enriched uranium issue — they will agree that such enrichment take place within the region but outside of Iran. It will either be under the supervision of Turkey or Russia or both. One or both of the countries will provide all the enriched uranium Iran needs for peaceful nuclear use. The two countries will provide Iran all the fuel it needs for peaceful nuclear energy, including for medical research and isotopes; they will also hold Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

But the U.S. is making some important concessions, these sources say. When Witkoff met with the Butcher of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, yesterday, he told an angry Bibi that, in this round, Trump wanted a clean nuclear deal and would not be going after Iranian missile and drone production. Witkoff also said that Iran will not be forced to break ties with Hamas and Hezbollah, saying that in the case of Hamas, there is no evidence that Iran is restocking them, which severely limits their capabilities.

In addition, if Iran plays ball and follows the deal as negotiated, then the U.S. would start a phased lifting of the sanctions against Tehran.

Trump Expected to Claim Victory Through Strength

“Trump and media have built up the drama over this meeting,” said a source. “But I think we have a far better than even chance that there will be a deal that can be initialed. There will also be talk of respecting the rights of ‘peaceful protestors,’ and if Trump says anything, he will likely talk of de‑escalation and maybe even potential for collaborative programs and projects to, say, build some nuclear power desalination plants to ease the fresh water shortage that has been worsened by a years‑long drought. 

Trump will no doubt also say that this was all made possible by his show of brute American power with his ‘big, beautiful Armada.’ I tried to explain to someone in the White House that Trump might want to stop referring to it as an ‘Armada,’ which causes an association with the great Spanish Armada of the 15th century. These guys did not even know that the English defeated the Spanish Armada.”

If Talks Fail, Pressure for War Will Surge

But what if this all goes south, and there is no deal or outline of a deal? 

“Then Trump will be under enormous pressure to use all that might to topple the regime,” the source stated. “I don’t think they are ready for that yet, so there is still some wiggling room. That outcome won’t just be drama. It will be a murderous tragedy for all involved. But I think we are finally going to get a deal.”