Iranian Protests Could Lead to Nuclear Deal Soon

Jan. 5—President Donald Trump has warned the Iranian regime that if they start shooting people in the street protesting their policies, he “would come to their rescue” and described the U.S. as “locked and loaded” and ready to act, as he did two days ago in ordering the raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, bringing them back to New York to face drug trafficking charges.

But sources report that the U.S. has no such plans for a military intervention in Iran, which would require a far more massive response than the very limited raid on Caracas, and more importantly, such action would be of little real help to the Iranian people. These sources say that unlike in Venezuela, where Trump is advised by his incompetent Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who seeks to promote regime change in the region because of his obsession with the Cuban regime, whose former leader the late Fidel Castro had expelled his family, Trump has access to competent advice on Iran from people like his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. They will tell him to calm down and focus on current U.S. policy, which is to secure a deal barring Tehran from developing nuclear weapons and to promote an end to the country’s isolation through its participation in development projects throughout the region. Such a policy is in the interest of the Iranian people, as well as Israel—if not its messianic Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who wants war with Iran to bolster his declining chances of political survival.

Protests Reflect Economic Anger, Not Foreign Manipulation

The Iranian theocratic regime has, in fact, so far treated the protests as a legitimate expression of public frustration with the economic policies of the regime, which have caused inflation in all basic living costs and an overall decline in their standard of living. Thus, the authorities have shown remarkable restraint in the face of the protests that sources in Iran say are larger and more widespread than anything in several decades. It is also known that there are Israeli and likely also CIA operatives inside the protests, but the sources say that outside agents are not what is driving them. Most of the fewer than 25 reported deaths have occurred from crowd control actions.

A source with several decades of experience in the region says that there is really no person in Iran right now who could actually lead a government that could replace the theocracy of the Ayatollahs, led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Any attempt at regime change would plunge the country into civil war–like conditions that create a far worse humanitarian disaster than even the genocide taking place in Gaza by the Israelis and would likely trigger a regional war. “But this is actually Bibi’s policy,” said the source. “To permanently destroy Iran as a modern nation and to set the region ablaze. This is not the U.S. policy, and the U.S. must not support Netanyahu and his war drive. It never really had anything to do with Iran’s nuclear capabilities.”

Economic Crisis Pushes Tehran Toward Negotiations

The source said that Iran is now going to have to make some tough choices. “The only way the regime can now improve economic conditions for its people is to get relief from the sanctions,” said the source. “And the only way to do that is make the nuclear deal with the U.S. They need to call Witkoff and say they want to talk and resolve things. They will need to accept that they won’t be able to enrich uranium; that alone makes the deal. But if they want all the sanctions removed and take away any excuse for Bibi to strike again, they will need to agree to restrict their ballistic missile program. These will be bitter pills to swallow, but the outlines of such a deal have already been discussed. The Iranian people do not give a damn about uranium enrichment or ICBMs. They want nuclear power to build new industry and to power massive desalination plants. Iran is also suffering from the worst drought in decades, which has caused water restrictions in major cities, including Tehran. The people want water and prosperity. Those are things that Witkoff can make Trump understand. They don’t want war.”

“I think this is all possible,” said the source. “And it will help make the Gaza deal work. You can start focusing on broader plans and development, such as the long-ago proposed Oasis Plan to make the desert bloom and provide water, which, in the region, is the fuel for development and prosperity.”

Analysts Warn Against Regime-Change Fantasies

Many other sane people have urged the United States to give up on regime change for Iran. The lead editorial in Haaretz today says any effort to turn the protests toward a change in regime would lead to chaos and worse, and make war the most likely outcome.

Haaretz sage policy analyst Zvi Bar’el writes today: “The regime’s insistence on framing the protest as a justified expression of public frustration with the economic situation means that it believes that it can still resolve the issue. However, a real solution lies only in the lifting of international and U.S. sanctions, which became harsher after the so-called snapback mechanism was lifted in September, triggering the re-imposition of UN sanctions on Iran...

“In 2013, Khamenei coined the slogan ‘heroic flexibility,’ which means tactical concessions to protect long-term interests. He used it to explain his agreement to sign the 2015 nuclear deal. Khamenei later put it into practice when approving another round of talks with the Trump administration.

“The question now is whether the mounting pressure and threats will prompt Khamenei to pull his notion of ‘heroic flexibility’ out of the drawer, a move that could help ensure the regime’s continuity, or whether he will instead choose to prioritize his ideological legacy for future generations.

“It’s still unknown where the protests are headed, how long the regime will apply ‘heroic flexibility,’ and at what point it will flood the streets with soldiers and tanks. Opinions also vary among protesters and regime critics.”

White House Sources Expect Tehran to Reach Out Soon

Sources close to the White House say that Trump makes his threats against Iran to “stir the pot” and that despite what he says, and the bellicose way he says it, he knows that his options are limited, and that he wants negotiations to restart as soon as possible on the nuclear deal.

So far, these sources say, the only call on Iran he has gotten was from Bibi Netanyahu. “But both the President and Steve Witkoff think that there will soon be a call for Steve from Tehran,” said a source. “And he will gladly take the call, even if it is collect.”