No Progress in 3-Way Talks on Ukraine: Talks End With “Constructive” Tone but No Breakthrough

Feb. 5—The second round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, as brokered by the United States, ended today in Abu Dhabi after three hours, with both sides and the U.S. saying that they had been “constructive,” but admitting that there had been no real progress in ending the almost five‑year‑old war between Russia and NATO using Ukrainian bodies. While there are disputes over which side has lost more people, there is little dispute that more than 1 million have died in the carnage, the biggest war in Europe since World War II.

The American delegation was headed by President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who used his consummate skill to show some progress in an agreed swap of 314 prisoners. Sources report that Witkoff, who is preparing for vitally important talks with Iran tomorrow, was not going to attend the two days of sessions, but changed his mind, think it best to attempt to prevent their possible collapse.

Sources: Russia Sees No Incentive to End a Winning War

“The real problem is not Russia,” said a source close to the White House. “They have made it clear that there is no real incentive for them to end a war that they are winning on the battlefield. All reports, coming from either Ukraine or NATO, are falsified. There were silly reports coming from people working with NATO that the Russian advance had slowed, and that Ukraine was doing better. [NATO’s Ukrainian dictator Volodymyr] Zelenskyy repeats this nonsense. But the President knows that Russia is winning and that Ukraine does not have the trained manpower or really any manpower, even if they draft teenagers, to fight. They are losing ground rapidly, and add to this that the Russians have effectively succeeded in blockading Ukraine’s main trading port, Odessa, and you have a total disaster.

“Then we have the near destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid under relentless Russian missile and drone attacks that have left most major cities largely in the dark, including Kyiv, with people without heat in the freezing winter temps,” said the source. “The situation is so bad that Trump called [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to ask him for a week’s truce on attacks related to Kyiv and the energy grid. Putin agreed, saying that he hoped it would help the negotiations, but the truce ended when Putin said it would Feb. 1. And yesterday, the Russians launched the largest drone and missile strike of the war. Zelenskyy attacked Putin as sabotaging peace efforts, but the President isn’t listening, saying the Russian President did what he had told Trump he would do.”

Territory, Donbass, and the Sticking Points

While, for a change, there have not been leaks on what was said during the two days of discussion — in which the Ukrainian and Russian delegations included top intelligence people — other sources say that the impasse remains the same: Ukraine won’t agree to withdraw from the portion of land it still clings to in Donetsk, which would give the Russians control of the Donbass and the four oblasts which, along with Crimea, have joined the Russian Federation following plebiscites. Russia wants these areas recognized as part of Russia, while the Europeans back the Ukrainians in saying they will not do so.

But sources say that if Ukraine, recognizing the reality of the battlefield, cedes the Russians their last outposts in Donetsk, Witkoff and others, including his new partner, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, can come up with language to walk around this problem.

Security Guarantees Divide U.S., Europe, and Ukraine

The larger problem is the so‑called security guarantees that Zelenskyy has claimed the U.S. has agreed to with him, but which Trump says is not true, stating that such guarantees by the United States must come with Ukrainian concessions on territory. Here the problem, the sources report, is the Euro‑fools, such as British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Frederich Mertz. They are insisting that the security guarantee must allow for the deployment of troops from NATO countries, such as Britain and France, in Ukraine — something the Russians will never agree to.

Trump also knows that Putin wants a broader "indivisible" security guarantee that covers Russia as well. He will sign a non‑aggression pact with NATO and the United States, but Putin also wants language that NATO will stop its relentless eastward expansion, and that Ukraine will never be part of NATO; Zelenskyy has reluctantly, under pressure from Trump, effectively agreed to the latter. The Euro‑fools are not saying they will agree to halt or roll back NATO expansion.

The irony is that all these were contained in the framework for a peace deal that was discussed between Trump and Putin in Alaska last summer. “The Russians have been clear on this,” said the source close to the White House, “and Zelenskyy refuses to face reality. But he has been warned. The scandals in Ukraine can easily be made to engulf the little President. Trump has told him, either he works it out and signs a deal, or we will find someone who will.”

Military Leaders on Both Sides Want the War to End

There was a prisoner exchange today, which apparently had been worked out between the armies. Sources report that there have been backchannel discussions between military leaders on ending the war for a few years now. Both the Russian and Ukrainian military leaders want this meatgrinder of a war to end, sources report.

There are plans for a new round of talks next month, when it is hoped things can be brought to the table that will yield real progress. By that time, however, the situation on the battlefield may point to the total defeat of Ukraine.

 “President Trump is offering a way to end all this, to avoid a humiliating defeat and surrender,” said the source. “The Ukrainians should take it.”