Nuke Talks Postponed, Amidst Power Struggle in Iran

June 27—Iranian officials said that they were not yet ready to resume talks with the United States on a deal that would end Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions, while allowing it to have a robust civilian nuclear program, in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. President Donald Trump had on June 26 announced that a new round of the talks—suspended June 13 after Israel's unprovoked attack on Iranian nuclear sites and other targets, and the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders—would likely take place in Qatar next week. Trump's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who reportedly had been in touch with the Iranians to set up the talks, expressed hope "for a comprehensive peace agreement."

Sources report that Witkoff had also been in touch with the Russians, who are more than an interested third party in the talks and will likely guarantee any final deal and participate in providing Iran with below weapons-grade uranium as fuel for its civilian program. Russian President Vladimir Putin had urged an Iranian delegation in Moscow, just prior to the ceasefire, to sign a fair deal.

But Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had led the delegation to Moscow, told Iranian state television yesterday that reports of a new round of talks were pure "speculation."

"I would like to state clearly that no agreement, arrangement, or conversation has been made to start new negotiations," he said on state television. "No plan has been set yet to start negotiations."

Supreme Leader Undermines Civilian Diplomacy

There is little doubt that the Iranian foreign minister and others in the civilian government had agreed to the talks in indirect and direct conversations with Witkoff and others, sources report. The person who had cancelled them was the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had emerged from hiding with a pre-recorded video message proclaiming that Iran had won the war with Israel and that the United States had struck Iranian nuclear sites to bail out the losing Israelis, who had sought a truce with Iran.

The Ayatollah, who remains in hiding in some unknown secure place, further stated the enemy had failed to destroy Iran's actual and potential nuclear capabilities, and while asserting that Iran will not produce or use weapons of mass destruction, that decision remains Iran's to make.

Post-War Repression and Internal Turmoil

A source with decades of experience in the region and Iran reports that, in the wake of a war that saw Israel operate freely in the air and with special units on the ground, there is a massive crackdown throughout the country—especially inside the Revolutionary Guard, the five million-strong army pledged to martyrdom in service of the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader.

"There is no love from the Iranian people for the Mullahs," said the source. "They had led the country into economic disaster. But the people still relied on them for protection, and they were defenseless when Israel attacked from the air. The people don't really give a shit about the nuclear program, as it relates to bombs. They want an end to the sanctions, and economic development and progress in the country outside of Tehran. The younger generations especially want this; they are tired of the isolation.

"Khamenei is an old man with old ideas," said the source. "But as would be the case in any nation under attack, the people rallied to support the leader. His political strength increased. But now the war is over, and he talks about maybe a new war. This, no one wants. I read that speech as a swan song. He is going to be replaced. And not by his son, at least for the long term. That's not the way the Mullahs operate. They will choose someone from their ranks.

"And while there is talk in Israel and the US about regime change," the source continued, "the question is really whether people have the sense to let things flow, or whether there are moves to push it. First, let's be clear there is no person or faction that has the power to overthrow the Mullahs now. If this is pushed, it will be the bloody mess that Trump refers to when he speaks of the Libya example. Where people are working for change is within the existing institutions."

The source reported that after the Israelis took out the old leadership of the Revolutionary Guard, there was a plan for a coup by the younger leadership, which would have had an impact on the Mullahs as well. But the source said that the coup was uncovered and several hundred of its leaders have been liquidated. He says that there is also widespread repression taking place throughout the country, with mass arrests of what are called dissidents, but which also include suspected Israeli agents.

The Talks Deferred, Not Dead

Reuters reported June 26: "Iranian authorities are pivoting from a ceasefire with Israel to intensify an internal security crackdown across the country with mass arrests, executions and military deployments, particularly in the restive Kurdish region, officials and activists said.

"Within days of Israel's airstrikes beginning on June 13, Iranian security forces started a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints, the officials and activists said."

Witkoff and Trump's plan for nuclear talks occurs in the middle of this political battle. "It will have to wait until the civilian government can navigate these waters," said another source. "Despite his tough talk, the power of this Supreme Leader is on the wane. There will be talks and a deal, because the Iranian people want one."

Trump wants a deal, sources said, but he was low-key and was not about to push it. “I could get a statement that they’re not going to go nuclear," he said June 26. "We’re probably going to ask for that, but they’re not going to be doing it anyway."

Trump then reiterated: “We may sign an agreement, [but] I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.”