Putin Flips the Script on Ukraine
Jan. 17—Sources both in Europe and Washington say that there has been a change in Russian policy toward Europe and the United States, following the unsuccessful drone attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Valdi last month.
Since that attack, which the United States and the CIA still claim never took place, there have been discussions going on within the Russian elite. There is a section of that elite that thinks that Putin has put too much faith in an unstable President Donald Trump as his negotiating partner.
The drone attack, which the Russians know was launched at Putin—confirmed by the targeting programming from downed drones—was launched from Ukraine but could not have been done without the assistance of either the British or the U.S. or both. There have been press reports, whose content has not been denied, that the U.S. CIA is now effectively in charge of the drone attacks on Russia. This has caused more than one Russian commentator to speculate as to whether the CIA directed the attack on Valdi and Putin’s home there. If the CIA was involved, would not Trump have had to approve such a strike?
Trump had initially said that he knew nothing of the strike and was informed of it by Putin in a phone call in which Trump was briefing him on the results of then ongoing talks with NATO’s Ukrainian dictator Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who immediately termed the report of the attack on Putin as “fake” and “Russian propaganda.” This view was later supported by a report to Trump by CIA Director John Radcliffe, which claimed that there had been a drone attack in the area, but its target was a Russian military base and not Putin; the base was never named.
Putin’s Silence and Lavrov’s Warning Signal a Shift
The attack, and the likelihood of American involvement—and even the possibility of Trump’s involvement—had to unnerve Putin, a source said. “You are trying to kill your negotiating partner.” Putin has been mostly silent on the attack and all policy matters, letting Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and others do the talking for Russia. Lavrov said that the attack would cause Russia to revise its negotiating position.
Western sources believed that this meant that Russia would withdraw some concessions made to Trump to keep the peace talks moving. Trump Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son‑in‑law Jared Kushner are reportedly soon headed to Moscow to meet with Putin, where it was thought these changes would be discussed.
But it would appear that a more fundamental shift has taken place.
Putin Reframes the Entire Basis for Peace
Speaking to diplomats presenting their credentials at the Kremlin Jan. 16, Putin gave a short overview of a world in crisis and Russia’s approach to what was happening.
When discussing Ukraine, Putin said that it was the lack of a viable security architecture in Europe that had allowed NATO’s eastward expansion toward Russia’s borders, despite assurances given earlier that this would not happen. While the United States might now sincerely want to end a war that Russia is winning, they are unable to bring the Europeans along on a plan. The Europeans now appear to want to achieve what the war was fought to prevent by making a NATO occupation force in Ukraine part of any peace plan. Meanwhile, Putin said, the European powers of NATO—led by the French, the British, and the Germans—call for a military buildup to defend against the non‑existent threat of Russian invasion.
“[P]eace does not come by itself. It must be built, day-by-day…. Achieving peace requires effort, a sense of responsibility and the ability to make deliberate choices. This posture is especially relevant today considering the increasingly deteriorating international environment. I think that no one would claim otherwise. Old conflicts are escalating, while new serious hotbeds of tension emerge.”
Recently, “unilateral and dangerous actions often substitute diplomacy,” Putin stated. A “might makes right” approach now threatens. "Dozens of countries across the world have been suffering from the infringement of their sovereign rights, from chaos and lawlessness. They lack the strength and resources to stand up for themselves. …
“This has been clearly demonstrated by the crisis around Ukraine, which became a direct consequence of years of ignoring Russia’s legitimate interests and a deliberate policy of creating threats to our security, including the advancement of the NATO bloc towards Russia’s borders—contrary to the public promises made to us.”
A lasting peace is possible, but diplomacy must get serious about a new security architecture. This includes returning to "the understanding that security must be truly comprehensive and, therefore, equal and indivisible, and it cannot be ensured for some at the expense of the security of others. …
“indivisibility of security” principle, whereby the security of one nation cannot be achieved at the expense of others. Further, to secure such peaceful arrangements, countries need to work with the “emerging trends and a fair multipolar world order.”
This leads me to conclude, said Putin, flipping the entire script for peace in Ukraine, that there cannot be peace in either Europe or Ukraine unless the issue of a new security architecture for all of Europe is addressed first, one that establishes the basis for peace and cooperation among sovereign nations.
This caught many observers by surprise, but it should not have. The concept of a new security architecture for Europe was discussed by Putin and Trump at their summit in Alaska last summer. It was part of the framework for peace in Ukraine. Putin, after NATO tried to kill him, now says that if there is to be peace—and not merely what would be a halt to NATO’s war against Russia in Ukraine—there must be a broader basis for dialogue and discussion established that meets not only Ukraine’s and the West’s need for security, but Russia’s as well. That becomes the basis for the security guaranty of any peace deal.
A Broader Deal, Not a Narrow Ukraine Settlement
“This is what will become the basis for continued negotiations with the Russians,” said a source in Washington. “That is what Putin wants. It must be a broader peace deal, not merely with Trump, but with the Europeans, who as Putin says, are mobilizing for a war with Russia. It is the only way to prevent such a war.”
As for Ukraine, the Russians continue to move forward toward an unstoppable total military victory. The Russians have rejected, totally, the so‑called 20‑point plan, in which Zelenskyy and his European backers hacked any peace plan to death. They had called the previous 28‑point plan from Trump a ‘surrender document,’ said the source. “Now it looks like they might have to swallow an actual surrender document.”
Advice for Trump: Acknowledge Reality and Pivot
“If Trump is smart, he will drop the stupid charade about the attack on Putin being Russian propaganda,” the source continued. “He should provide his assurance that he was not involved personally and also say that such attacks on Putin or other Russian leaders are not American policy. And he should offer his partnership in the effort to build a new security architecture for Europe, one that would end the need for the NATO alliance.
“How will the Europeans respond to this?” the source concluded. “Who knows? Right now, they can’t agree on a single envoy who would talk to Putin on their behalf, to replace the cacophony of often conflicting voices. It will take a while for these dummies to realize what Putin is doing. And when they do, they will not like it. But, with Trump’s help, they could eventually be forced to the table.”