Russian Strategic Analysts: ‘A New Security Order Is on the Table in Alaska’

Aug. 16—Two of Russia’s most prominent strategic analysts took to the pages of RT Aug. 14 to provide an overview of what is at issue for the Aug. 15 Alaska summit of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Dmitry Suslov (Valdai Club expert and member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy) and Fyodor Lukyanov (also of the Valdai Club and editor in chief of Russia in Global Affairs) concurred that far more than territorial issues or even the Ukraine war is at stake, but rather that a fundamental shift in the global security order is afoot. Lukyanov’s article was headlined “A New Security Order Is On the Table in Alaska: Putin-Trump meeting recalls the stakes of German reunification.”

Lukyanov stressed that the Alaska summit could be a milestone “for the principles on which a broader settlement between the world’s leading powers might be reached…. What is troubling is that the public debate remains focused on territorial carve-ups—who gets what, and what is given in exchange. This misses the core issue. The acute phase of the Ukraine crisis was not triggered by a hunger for territorial expansion. It began when Moscow challenged the security order that emerged after the Cold War—an order built on the open-ended enlargement of NATO as the supposed guarantor of European stability.”

Lukyanov also emphasized that the Global Majority, led by the BRICS, were taking significant steps themselves towards a changed paradigm. “Donald Trump’s recent attempt to pressure the largest states of the so-called ‘global majority’—China, India, Brazil, and South Africa—to fall in line with Washington’s instructions,” did not produce the intended results. “The attempt has failed to produce the outcome the White House wanted…. But the bluntness of the American push this time forced them to stiffen their positions.” Lukyanov concluded: “The frequency of Putin’s meetings with BRICS leaders shows that Moscow understands this reality. Whether Washington does remains to be seen.”

Suslov also emphasized that Trump’s “effort to squeeze Moscow by pushing China and India to stop buying Russian oil has backfired badly…. It also encouraged a thaw between India and China, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi now set to attend the SCO summit in Tianjin.”

Suslov concluded that “BRICS, which Trump has openly vowed to weaken, has only grown more cohesive. The Alaska summit is Trump’s chance to escape the trap he built for himself—trying to pressure Moscow through Beijing and New Delhi—and to show results on Ukraine that he can sell as a diplomatic victory.”

One way this can be done is through Russian-American great project economic cooperation, with an open door to the BRICS. “Arctic economic cooperation, largely frozen since 2014, could be revived,” Suslov wrote. “Both sides stand to gain from joint development in the far north, and a deal here would be politically symbolic—proof that the two countries can work together despite the baggage of the last decade.”