Source: Deluded, Badly Advised Trump Heads for Disaster in Iran
March 2—A source with more than 4 decades of experience in dealing with the region said today that President Donald Trump has been given bad advice that has fed his delusion that he could be Iran's liberator. This has caused him to abandon diplomacy, when the reality is that no military solution to the crisis that has been created is available at a price Americans would be willing to pay.
The irony, the source stated, was that a diplomatic solution was available, and that the deluded Trump rejected it, ignoring the advice of his chief negotiator, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and listening instead to the Butcher of Gaza, the messianic Zionist who is the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, and a gaggle of advisors and politicians who belong to the Christian Zionist cult.
Geneva Talks Had Produced a Framework Deal
Here's how the source described circumstances that have led to this point and how to evaluate the current situation in Iran.
First, the last meeting in Geneva between the Iranians and the U.S. had in fact reached an agreement on an acceptable framework for a nuclear deal—acceptable to Trump; the Iranians, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, were certain they could force Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to agree to the deal, and teams would work out the technical details. This is what Witkoff told Trump, who was urged him to wait to see if the Iranians could deliver the deal.
The source said that reports that Trump was never really serious about reaching a deal and was merely waiting for all the military pieces to be put in place for a strike, was a lie. Trump was negotiating in good faith, until he was told by Netanyahu that he could and should go for a final solution that would force a regime change and that the opportunity was there to take out Khamenei and that this would lead to regime change and end the problem with Iran for all time. Bibi's assessments were supported by U.S. intel reports that the death of the Ayatollah, along with military strikes that would reduce Iran's military and police capacity, as well as its ability to retaliate, could produce regime change and a popular uprising.
Netanyahu’s Pitch for Regime Change
"Trump was given the choice," said the source. "Either take the nuclear deal and give up a chance for regime change or reject the deal and let us Israelis kill an Ayatollah and you come in with us, and we change the whole world. If you take the deal, you strengthen the regime because you will reduce the sanctions. Trump chose to make Iran great again, gave Bibi the go ahead to move at first opportunity, with the U.S. joining in."
The source reported that there has been "much bullshit" written about the U.S. advanced surveillance on Khamenei that knew his every move and routine and their ability to track the meeting of Iran's leadership to his compound in Tehran Feb. 28. It was the attack that morning that killed Khamenei, much of his family, and a good portion of the military and political leadership.
The source said that a faction inside the Iranian leadership was working with the CIA and Mossad. These people were opponents of the Ayatollah but were in it for the money. The source said that some or most of them were already outside Iran, with money stolen from the Iranian treasury. In some cases, they may have been reported as killed in the attack.
Early Reactions Misread as ‘Regime Collapse’
"You should not view such people as legitimate opposition, but merely political and military scum," said the source. "In assessing the first results of the attacks, Trump became even more manic. There was little resistance to air operations over Iran, and Iranian missile and drone counterattacks were less intense than had been expected, with low casualties. And there were people in the streets. Not great throngs, but a lot of them, and while some mourned the Ayatollah, most celebrated. All of this was interpreted to mean that regime change was possible.
"But the Iranian government is a system," said the source. "Not a bunch of individuals. And the system was not broken with air strikes. That system has a dual military function. The regular military is far less important and far less powerful than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and adjunct police forces. This is a combined force of around 4 million, highly trained, highly educated and totally loyal to the mullahs. There is no sign that IRGC power has in any way been seriously diminished. For the time being, they are not in the streets. Which is why the people are in the streets."
The source continued: "When Gen [Dan] Caine [the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] warned Trump that Iran could not be defeated by an air war alone, it was because he knew that sooner or later, if you are going for regime change, you will have to fight IRGC on Iranian soil. They could be defeated, but how long would that take and how many casualties? Were the President and the American people willing to accept, say 30,000 casualties, to achieve what result? It is not clear that the deluded President really understands this."
Israel’s Strategy and the Push Toward a Ground War
"Trump has said that he loves the Iranian people," said the source. "But he has plunged into a policy mess that could kill several hundred thousand Iranians. Now one person who loves these numbers is Bibi. His messianic Zionist cult wants Iran, or as it was called, Persia, destroyed for all time, so that it can never threaten the power of Israel. It is unlikely that Israel will ever send the IDF ground troops to fight in Iran. Let the Americans do our dirty work."
The source said that there is no real off ramp for Trump now, after he decided to go down Bibi's road. And if one should appear, say a move for a ceasefire and a nuclear treaty, Bibi, said the source, has a plan to blow that up. Israel has around 100,000 agents and assets on the ground in Iran right now. As soon as possible, he will use these assets to arm and direct the people who want regime change. He will have them fight against whomever is appointed to replace Khamenei, and the IRGC will respond and slaughter them. If that happens, Bibi believes that his sucker Trump will send in the marines, and we have a real ground war on Iranian soil.
Risk of Escalation and Warnings of Mass Casualties
"This war is not being fought for the Iranian people but for Bibi's cult of messianic Zionists and their Christian Zionist supporters who surround Trump," the source stated. The source doubted that a bloodbath can be averted, and expects casualties to rise initially as Iran launches more of its sophisticated missiles which will easily pierce Israel's Golden Dome and could even strike a few ships in Trump's Great Armada.
The source said that he would bring in the Russians, as an honest broker, to seek a peace deal and halt the bloodshed. But it may take many more people dying before such a move is possible. Trump has gone into this with bad intelligence, the source concluded. "There is no viable opposition to the current regime. There is no unifying figure, which in reality, makes any regime change impossible. The surrounding Gulf States and even the Saudis could help with the Russians and even the Chinese in brokering a deal that would keep the oil flowing through the Gulf of Hormuz. The Iranians must choose wisely when they replace the Ayatollah. They could rely on people who understand the west and what internal reforms are necessary. Someone like former President Rouhani, who is one of Iran's great religious figures and scholars, and who understands and can work with the west. But, Trump has put himself and all of us in a real mess."