Source: It Will Take 'Creativity' to Reach Peace Deal with Iran

April 27—Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is headed for meetings in Moscow that will include a session with Russian President Vladimir Putin, where sources report the Russians will make some proposals to break the stalemate over enriched uranium that has stalled talks on a peace deal with the United States to end the Israeli-U.S. aggression against the Islamic Republic.

Missed Talks and Ongoing Proposals

The mission to Moscow had always been on Araghchi's agenda, which may have also included a session with American negotiators this weekend in Islamabad that never took place, as President Donald Trump cancelled the dispatch of the negotiating team for what he said would be costly but ultimately unproductive discussions, mediated by Pakistani leaders.

Nonetheless, Trump reported April 25 that he was in receipt of two proposals formulated by the Iranians, the last one coming ten minutes after he had cancelled the flights of the negotiators, which he described as saying some "very good things", but not yet coming close enough to American demands. Trump made no threats to pulverize Iran with air strikes and instead said that they could call him if they wanted to talk.

Core Issues and Need for ‘Creativity’

A source with more than fifty years of experience in the region, with knowledge about the current negotiations, said that at this point, while there are many details to be worked out, there are really three areas of real contention. "Iran has agreed that it does not need a nuclear weapon and has told Trump this, with specific wording to be worked out," said the source. "Trump, despite his colorful and bellicose threats to Iran, should they not agree to his demands, has told the Iranians that he wants a total end to the war, which he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu launched Feb. 28, and which is now in an indefinite ceasefire as long as the talks continue. Trump has made it clear that he reserves the right to resume fighting, if Iran refuses serious negotiation, which is not the case now.

"Trump has justified the delays in the talks by blaming them on the 'confused and disorganized state of the Iranian leadership', which has seen Israel decapitate its key leaders, including assassinating the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and seriously wounding his son, who was chosen to succeed him," the source continued. "While this is true, the real problem is that the remaining issues require creativity, not rhetoric, to deal with, and it is unclear that either side has shown the level of creativity required.

"So, with that in mind, let me offer some suggestions that might move the process along," said the source, with a laugh.

Proposals on Enrichment and Uranium Stockpiles

"First, on the enrichment issue, there has been some creativity. The Iranians have made it a principle that a sovereign state that has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has the right, within limits, to enrich its own uranium. Trump, while giving lip service to this, says any enrichment "industry" could quickly become a pathway to bomb-making. The reality is that Iran currently does not need a native industry to meet demands for its nuclear industry and medical and other research. Someone—even the United States—can provide them what they need at low cost. So, Iran has put forward the idea that they would, for a period of years (5–7), suspend their nuclear enrichment programs. The U.S. says it wants a 20-year suspension (although Trump has said he wants more than that). This debate is silly. Come up with a number—say 15 years—and move on. The fact is that Iran, with its existing scientific cadre, could always build a bomb starting from zero enriched uranium. It would take some months to do this, but it could be done. The way to prevent it is not with inspections and banning facilities, etc., but in understanding the need to create the conditions where Iran does not need or want a bomb."

And while Iran makes a big deal about this principle, polls taken by the Iranians have shown that the Iranian people don't care about enrichment or even a bomb as much as they want sanctions relief—which will come from signing onto this deal.

"There is also the question of what to do with the existing stockpile of uranium, enriched to more than 60%, and which is said to be buried deep underground in the rubble of facilities which the U.S. and Israel bombed last summer," said the source. "There are two issues here—how to get at the stockpile and what to do with it after you dig it out. But if it is buried, why dig it out? Leave it there and make sure it is not dug out. It would be easy to detect efforts to recover this. Ah, but what if it is not there, but hidden somewhere else? Again, the issue is to make Iran not want to develop a nuclear weapon. Hopefully, that is what happens in a post-war region, where development is the name of peace.

"And if you want to go get the uranium," the source said, "Putin and the Russians, who are Iran's strategic partner, have said they will take and hold it in a lockbox, or Iran agrees, to reprocess it for reactor fuel. These are generous offers."

Strait of Hormuz and Innovative Governance Ideas

"Now for the last issue, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz," said the source. "Iran now realizes that in its control of the Strait, it has a more powerful weapon than a nuclear bomb, for the effect it has on the global economy. Iran says that it wants its sovereign control of the Strait recognized. That is not going to happen, in part because it is not true. Oman also controls part of the Strait. Right now, it is effectively shut down by Iranian actions and threats, and by a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Iran now also sees that if they are allowed to charge tolls for passage, the Strait becomes an enormous moneymaker, even if that revenue is shared with other neighbors, such as Oman.

"Now, here is where we need to get creative," said the source. "Why not create something like a Strait of Hormuz Authority, which would include Iran and its neighbors, but also other nations that use the Strait, such as China and the United States. And why not move away from tolls for individual vessels and collect tolls from the oil companies, or the cartels, like OPEC and other beneficiaries of energy transport, which keeps the passage flowing smoothly. The funds could be redistributed to countries according to an agreed-upon formula, with some funds kept for improvements and maintenance. Some funds could also be used to backstop development projects in the region. Could this work? Why not? It has the added benefit of incentivizing keeping the Strait open."

Prospects for Renewed Talks

The source said if there is a will for peace, then there is a way to find a pathway to get there. "You have to be willing to try out new ideas when the old ones don't get you to where you have to go."

This and other sources expect a new round of negotiations to begin soon in Islamabad.