Source: Witkoff Reports Progress in Geneva Talks to Trump
Feb. 27—Following meetings in Geneva yesterday with Iranian negotiators, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly told President Donald Trump that he believes we have the outline of a deal acceptable to both sides that would end Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions for all time. But sources close to the White House say that the President has yet to accept this assessment and still wants to see "signed papers" before he would call off any military strikes on Iran.
The sources say that Witkoff has told the President that he does not see how any military action at this point would force Iran to make further concessions, if that is what Trump desires. He has said that military action would only strengthen forces inside Iran who oppose making a deal, and would lead instead to a long and costly war that could kill hundreds of thousands.
Details Israel Claims Are Not Addressed
According to sources familiar with the discussions, the proposed deal involves only the nuclear program and does not address issues supposedly of great concern to the Butcher of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu—Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
The sources say that Israel has given Trump "bad and unreliable" intelligence on that missile program, claiming that Iran is developing ICBMs that would be capable of reaching the United States. New American intelligence reports refute those claims, which are also denied by the Iranians. Israel, which has tens of thousands of agents and assets on the ground in Iran, has according to these sources also provided Trump with lies about the number of people killed by the regime during a crackdown on riots—in which Israel armed and paid "protestors" to attack government security forces. The number of dead is reliably reported to be less than 10,000, with more than 4,000 of those police and security forces, and not the 32,000 cited by Trump in his State of the Union Address, in which he also absurdly claimed that Iranian-supported terrorism had cost "millions of American lives."
Key Elements of the Proposed Agreement
As for the deal that is on the table to be approved by the U.S. and Iranian governments, with technical details to be worked out, it has the following elements:
• Iran renounces for all time any ambition to develop a nuclear weapon, and all facilities that could be part of such a program will be shuttered and inspected.
• Iran will agree to a moratorium on enrichment. During that time, a plan will be developed that will allow for enrichment to low levels for medical and other research and procedures, which enrichment would be supervised by third parties and inspected by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• Iran agrees to give up its existing stockpile of enriched uranium to be held by a third party, most likely Russia.
• The U.S. agrees to help and assist Iran in the development of the peaceful use of nuclear energy, including in the construction of safe, modern reactors whose fuel could not be used in a weapons program.
• The U.S. and Iran will agree to a phased schedule of sanctions relief, which will start upon signing. Similarly, the U.S. will work to release blocked or frozen Iranian funds.
• Iran has agreed to discuss with the U.S. possible investment in Iranian oil production, including in the modernization of facilities, and possible joint ventures in oil/natural gas development.
There would also be some wording that as long as the agreement is in effect, the U.S. will not launch attacks on Iran.
"This is a better deal than anyone had the right to expect after the U.S. and Israeli attacks last year," said the source. "It definitely offers the U.S. an off ramp from a military strike, if Trump takes it. And the Iranians have agreed to discuss the missile program and the proxies as well, while they made it clear that they will not give up the missile program because it is their main deterrent against an Israeli strike."
Netanyahu’s Expected Resistance and U.S. Military Concerns
These sources say that it is unlikely that Netanyahu will accept such a deal. But if Trump accepts it, Bibi will have to go along—at least for now.
Sources close to the White House dismissed as fake news reports that Trump now wanted Israel to strike Iran first, and then the U.S. would go in after Iran retaliated and struck American targets. And Trump himself dismissed reports that he now wanted to go with the limited strike, and perhaps follow up months later with larger and prolonged strikes aimed at regime change.
Trump has also attempted to play down widespread reports that the American military command neither favored a military option, nor thought that one would be successful. However, sources say that the concerns exist, especially after intelligence revealed the presence of several sophisticated Chinese reconnaissance ships with tracking radar that could eliminate the surprise factor in any strike. This does not mean that such strikes might not hit and destroy targets, but it does mean that Iran will have the time to launch its sophisticated missiles and drones at Israeli and American targets before they could be destroyed.
Analysts Warn of the Risks of a Prolonged War
But the concerns over a protracted war, with little apparent results, are indeed real. The sage strategic analyst Amos Harel writes in Haaretz today:
"The United States has indeed massed aircraft carriers, destroyers, warplanes and drones on a scale that is starting to recall the two Gulf wars. But a distinction needs to be made between the elements of their military force. The sheer numbers of air and maritime craft allow them a broad range of responses, in diverse scenarios. The Achilles' heel continues to be the defensive and offensive stockpiles in the region. The stockpiles guarantee breathing room, which the United States needs to wage a lengthy war. At the moment, there is no certainty that the Americans have the wherewithal to achieve a decisive victory by means of a short campaign.
"That uncertainty was apparently the background to the reports this week about the warnings voiced by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine. The U.S. military's top soldier, a former fighter pilot, is concerned about the amount of offensive munitions that will be needed to fight a protracted war in Iran. The American intercept missiles, which are meant to help defend Israel and the U.S. bases in the region, are also limited in quantity. And Caine is always required to take a broader view, in the face of what the Pentagon perceives as the number one strategic threat: the military struggle with China."
Looking Ahead: Strategic Choices for the Next Decade
The sources report that Witkoff believes that the next, and likely decisive, round of talks will take place in Geneva early next week. Witkoff had, during yesterday's sessions, broken protocol and simply walked into the next room to talk directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi; up until that point the indirect talks had been mediated by Oman.
A source with more than 50 years' experience dealing in the region said that he hopes that Witkoff and Trump approach this problem looking not at immediate circumstances but over the horizon, as to how things will look 10 years or more from now. "For one thing Khamenei is gone. And what will replace him is not one person with all that power, but three people, who will be pro-west. Iran was once the U.S. most reliable ally in the region, not Israel. If the two nations work together, that could be the case again. The Iranian people, despite all the propaganda from the mullahs, are pro-American. Trump has 54% popularity rating—even after he bombed Iran; before that it was close to 80%. Rather [than] try to force a regime change when there is no agreed leadership to take the place of the mullahs, let things evolve. Avoid the military option.
"Even for Israel with Iran, things are not the way Bibi tells you," the source continued. "The Iranians are not Arabs. They are Persians, and in the past, they have always gotten along with Jews. If you replace the insane messianic Zionist leadership with saner people in Israel, there can again be cooperation. Change is a process. It takes time. What you need to avoid is stupid actions that solve nothing but could make matters much worse—like a U.S. military strike. To lead, you must have wisdom. We will see if Trump can demonstrate that he has some."