Sources: Iran Negotiations Expected to Continue

April 12—Although Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad after 21 hours of negotiations on a peace deal without an agreement, sources close to the White House expect more negotiations to take place, likely before the expiration of a 14-day cease fire next week.

These sources say the Iranians stated positions clearly, as did the American delegation, and although significant differences remain between the two on key issues, they still believe that a diplomatic deal is the best way out of the crisis, that had seen 38 days of intense fighting and missile exchanges between the U.S. , Israel and Iran, that had dangerously spilled over in the Gulf States, and had left the Strait of Hormuz, the key transit chokepoint for nearly 20% of the world's energy shipments, effectively closed.

Sources report that the there is a great deal of mistrust on the part of Iran, who has twice before engaged in serious negotiations with the Americans, only to wind up being attacked when a possible deal on Iran's nuclear program was on the table. The Iranians, sources say, also doubt both the willingness and the ability of the U.S. control its "mad dog" Israeli ally, who they say openly violated the terms of the ceasefire agreement by continuing attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Lies and an Endless War

But the sources say that the Iranians have been told by mediators and others, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, that U.S. President Donald Trump wants an exit ramp out of a war that he was induced to join with false intelligence being provided the Americans by the Butcher of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu who told Trump the regime in Tehran would quickly collapse under the weight of the attacks and the decapitation of its leadership. This would be a short and quick war, which would change the region for the better, destroying Iran as a destabilizing force, the President was told.

Instead, Trump finds himself in the type of endless war that he foreswore to never fight, with the prospect of high casualties should he place American troops on the ground, as Bibi has hinted might be necessary.

Not as Expected

Sources report that Vance was instructed to make a deal or at least agree to the outlines of one, if the Iranians would provide a direct statement that they would renounce for all time, the development of a nuclear weapon. This, the sources report, was thought to be doable, since the Iranians had in fact agreed in principle with such a policy in previous negotiations.

But as Vance reported, the Iranians, refused to make such a statement, leaving the Americans with nothing to hang their hat on.

Similarly, Trump has demanded free and open transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which was to be fully opened during the agreed upon ceasefire. But that has not taken place, because, Iran says, they are not able to locate mines that they have placed. Sources had previously reported that Trump was willing to cede Iran control of the Strait and allow for the charge of a transit fee, that could be used to help fund reconstruction. Those reports had been confirmed, but Trump has now backed away from them, saying Iran must simply open the Strait before such proposals could be discussed. (Trump today ordered a blockade of the Strait by the U.S. Navy, until such a time that it is opened fully by Iran to all traffic).

The talks are also complicated from the Iranian side in that any deviation from stated positions must be taken back to the leadership of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which was not the case in prior negotiations.

Compromises Are Possible

Despite all these obstacles, and the complication that Israel does not want a deal but for the war to continue to the total destruction of Iran, there is still room for a negotiated settlement, as long as Trump wants this.

On the key nuclear issues, sources point to a possible compromise. Iran could agree to say that its policy towards nuclear weapon is stated by Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which it is a signatory and says that it won't develop weapons, and by the fatwa issued by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in Israeli strikes on the first day of the war, which finds that nuclear weapons and all weapons of mass destruction are against the teachings of the Muslim religion and that Iran will never develop them, Those statements, said a source, should provide sufficient assurance of Iranian intent.

However, if you rely on the NPT on weapons, you will then have to accept the Iranian position that it is allowed by the treaty to enrich uranium to levels well below making weapons grade materials. The U.S. could reach a compromise on this, that would also turn over Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, supposedly buried in the rubble of mountain facilities bombed by the U.S. last summer, to a third party, such a Russia, for holding and possible reprocessing. Sources say that the Russians have suggested this the Administration.

On the Strait, sources say a compromise would be to turn over responsibility for it to a regional authority, that would include Iran and Oman and other Gulf States, with participation from other users, including China. Fees would be collected by this authority to improve the waterway, as well as for more general reconstruction, including in Iran and the Gulf States, from war damages.

Regional Development Plans

Other sources report that Iran is keenly interested in convening a regionwide conference to discuss programs to improve living conditions in the area through infrastructure development. Such a conference should involve Israeli participation and could initially focus on water and nuclear power development, as proposed by the Oasis Plan, which has gained traction in many quarters.

"The way out of the crisis to pose great tasks that all people can cooperate on," said a source, "breaking down the distrust that has been used to keep people from seeing their common interest. Trump himself has expressed interest in this. This is the pathway towards peace-- a real and lasting peace, and not merely the postponement of fighting."

For, now, the key is to get the parties back to the negotiating table, before Netanyahu and his counterparts in Washington can get the war going again." An announcement on new talks could come in the next days, a source reported, who said he thought it was important that Trump characterized the discussions as having gone well.