Trenin: World War III has Already Begun—Can It Be Stopped?

July 16--“Dmitry Trenin: World War II Has Already Begun,” is the headline on an article in RT July 15 by Russian veteran analyst Trenin, who also spoke on July 12 in the opening panel of the Berlin Schiller Institute conference. In the artilce, he points out the grim reality: “Many now speak of humanity’s drift towards World War III, imagining events similar to those of the 20th century. But war evolves. It will not begin with a June 1941 Barbarossa-style invasion or a Cuban Missile Crisis-style nuclear stand-off. In fact, the new world war is already underway—it’s just that not everyone has recognized it yet….” The senior and highly respected policy analyst, who also has the ear of Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to several sources, made similar dark and foreboding statements in his address to the Schiller Conference, a transcript taken from the audio, which we feature below, to bring an intensity to the global dialogue on the nature of the crisis we face and its solutions, which were the subject of that important Berlin conference.

The Changing World Order and Global Security

Dr. Dmitry Trenin: First, let me give a huge thanks to the Schiller Institute, to Dr. Zepp-LaRouche, for inviting me to this conference. I would love to talk about peace and development and many other uplifting issues, but in the last few weeks the world has experienced crises—one of which is still ongoing—involving nuclear powers. One in South Asia, one in the Middle East, and the third one in Europe in Ukraine but not essentially over Ukraine.

One of the most striking revelations of 2025, not just for me but for many of my colleagues here in Moscow, has been Europe moving toward the front line of the conflict in Ukraine and turning itself into the main adversary and near enemy on the battlefield for Russia in the West’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. In my view, this is the result of two developments. One is Russia beginning to win the war in Ukraine; the other is the United States under the Trump administration de-prioritizing Europe to focus more on Asia—essentially on China. In this new environment, the analysis of myself and my colleagues is that Europe’s leaders found it useful to cast Russia into the role of the enemy at the gate as the main vehicle for further consolidation of Europe into a power center and strategic actor. Standing up to Russia has been elevated to the almost new unifying idea for Europe. After achieving peace among European nations after the Second World War, after the unification of Europe or rather the absorption of Eastern Europe into a greater European Union, the current grand idea of European integration seems [now] to be standing up to the barbarians in the East.

This notion is based on the, in my view, ludicrous assumption that Russia is poised to attack Europe in the medium-term future—the next three to five years. You don’t ask where this sort of intelligence comes from, because even asking that question could put you into the category of a "Putin agent." But this is widely accepted among the normally critically minded people of Europe. From the Russian side, it looks like Europe is not only talking about potential Russian aggression in the medium-term future, and is not busy deterring that aggression, but actually is preparing to fight against Russia in the next three to five years.

This is different from the Cold War period, when I think the emphasis was very much on the Cold War confrontation. Today the situation is much more dynamic, and thus much more dangerous. I think this is being taken with more and more concern in Russia, because as I said, this comes as a revelation. For decades during the Cold War and even after the Cold War, Europe was seen more or less as a group of vassals to the United States. Countries that have become totally pacifist or neo-pacifist were only serving the interests of the United States. This notion is being revised across the board in Russia. As I said, Europe is now in the front line; and unfortunately, in the historical position of a group of countries that are preparing for military engagement with Russia. So, Europe’s involvement in the war continues to grow. Europe is replacing the United States as the main purveyor of arms and munitions to Kyiv. It is upgrading the systems that have been transferred to Kyiv. That would include long-range missiles also from Germany.

So essentially, Europe is getting nearer and nearer to directly participating in a war with Russia. People are also talking about European troops being potentially sent into Ukraine, despite the many not only protests, but warnings from Russia that this is intolerable, and would constitute a very dangerous act. So, we are deeply struck also—me included, because I spent a lot of time in Germany in the 1970s and ’80s and have been visiting the country many times. I have a lot of good colleagues and many friends in Germany. But it gives me enormous pain to state that the Russian-German reconciliation, which was almost a miracle, given that it was achieved outside of any alliances or economic unions. It essentially began to happen when West Germany and the Soviet Union were on the opposite sides of the Cold War divide. This reconciliation, that was cemented by Moscow’s acceptance and actual support for Germany’s reunification 35 years ago; this reconciliation is no more. It’s in tatters, and it’s a tragedy, in my view. Something that I personally hailed as a miracle that was totally incredible; one of the things you cannot expect to happen, but it did happen. But then it became progressively undermined, I would say, over the past 20 years; and then it sank before our very eyes.

Let me conclude by saying that we find ourselves at a very [audio loss 1:49:32]. European leaders, if I may call them that way, would delude themselves into thinking that Russia will not respond, at least not retaliate, themselves, against the European powers for what they are doing in Ukraine and the weapons they are sending to Ukraine to hit Russia.

Let me also say that this point we’re going through is more dangerous than almost anything else we’ve seen during the Cold War. I would say that’s more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. One of the predictions that I hope we can still avert, I hope we can still make sure it doesn’t happen, and that this present crisis will not stop until and unless we look into the abyss like they did in 1962 and step back from that. But unlike in 1962, the new nuclear crisis that could put into question the continued existence of much of the world, if not all of it, will not happen over there. It will not happen in the Caribbean or anywhere else. It looks like it is going to happen [in Europe] unless, in this 11th hour, we mount a joint effort to achieve an agreement that will stick; an agreement that will stabilize the situation in Europe’s east.

Finally, let me say that things could have been averted; this crisis would never have happened but for NATO’s enlargement reaching Ukraine, and I would say, initially also Georgia. The idea that Ukraine would become a member of NATO was the real red line that led to this war. The crisis in Ukraine could have been stopped in its tracks; the situation could have been stabilized, had the Minsk Agreement of 2015, ten years ago, been honored by all parties. But this agreement, as [former German Chancellor] Mrs. Merkel admitted some time ago, was seen as simply a means to win time for the Ukrainians to re-arm. We could have stopped the war that began on a large scale in 2022, had the Istanbul draft treaty [been signed in April 2022]. But in fact, it was torpedoed by the joint efforts of the United States and the United Kingdom. We haven’t used the three chances [to stop this war], so it may be that God has run out of chances to give us; but I still hope that we can avoid the worst. Let me leave you with that hope, but the situation is really dire. Thank you very much; and apologies for bringing a lot of dark clouds to the horizon of the Schiller Conference. Thank you.

Dmitry Trenin is the Director of the Moscow-based Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University.