Trump Frustrated As Power Struggle in Iran Leaves Him No One to Talk With
June 28—President Donald Trump, despite his recent statements that he does not need a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear weapons program, wants such a deal to be in place yesterday, sources close to the White House report.
But Israel's unprovoked attack on Iran, and then Trump's own decision to launch attacks on three Iranian nuclear enrichment sites with "bunker buster" bombs, has set in motion a power struggle within the Iranian leadership that, for the moment, leaves him with no one to make a deal with.
A source with decades of experience in the region had earlier forecast this result when Trump decided to try to end what he calls the "12 Day War" by launching the US strike on the nuclear sites last weekend, thinking that he could bury Iran's nuclear ambitions in the rubble of the three sites and then circle back to a formal, negotiated settlement.
"He may yet be able to do that," said the source, "but he created a crisis in Iran. The civilian government and the military had forced the aging, and mostly out-of-touch Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to accept Trump as negotiating partner, who could strike a deal and then force that messianic lunatic [Israeli Prime Minister] Bibi Netanyahu to go along. Then while the negotiations are ongoing, Bibi attacks, and then Trump, after looking to get the talks going again, jumps in and bombs the sites. And then he ends the war, with the help of the Russians, with a ceasefire, and says Iran's program is 'obliterated.'"
Internal Fallout and Strategic Patience
"This sets off a chain of reactions in Iran, which predictably, amounts to a dangerous, slow walk regime change," said the source. "First, all the people who took Trump at his word on negotiations look like they were played for fools. So, even though they realize that there still must be a settlement at the table, they cannot go there. Then, there is hell to pay for the Revolutionary Guard and the military, who showed themselves utterly hopeless in defending the homeland and the Iranian people. Iran had no air defenses, and the people—not just the nuclear sites—could not be defended. In regimes such as Iran's, this means deadly purges, as people pay the price for failure—thousands of people will be purged or detained. At the top of the list of who will be replaced is the aged Ayatollah.
"Now before the regime changers start salivating too much," the source said, laughing at their stupidity. "The regime is not going to change in character and substance. Right now, there is no one and no institution that could replace the Mullahs and their fanatic Red Guard. If someone tries, that could unleash the chaos that Trump says he opposes when saying he does not want another Libya. So, you have to give room to let things play out. A week or two and then move back towards negotiation. And, I say they are not headed for a neanderthal regime that promotes confrontation and has more wars and sanctions. Why? Because this the Iranian people won't tolerate. They want an end to their economic suffering and isolation—especially the younger people. There will be a new, younger Supreme Leader who will reflect this, over the longer term. In the meantime, Trump will get his negotiations—even if he does not understand why."
New Power Brokers and Rising Frustration
Asked about whether the talk about failing to actually obliterate Iran's nuclear program as Trump maintains could lead to new strikes on Iran, perhaps using Israeli nukes, the source said that while anything is possible, given Bibi's zealotry and the neo-cons' strategic insanity, "I don't think so. The Iranian people don't give a shit about the nuclear weapons program. Nuclear power, yes, because it could lead to development and prosperity. That is why the Ayatollah has not pushed the weapons program. Even he thinks there is more Iran and its regime—whoever is in power—can gain from a negotiated settlement than from having a few bombs, which Israel will never allow to happen.
"And there is another powerful player here: Vladimir Putin and Russia actually hold the key to this situation," the source pointed out. "Russia does not want an Iranian fundamentalist state, which once fought the Russians, to have a bomb. They don't want to be brought into a crisis, as Iran's strategic partner. Instead, they want to promote economic development, which is why Russia and China brought Iran into their BRICS alliance. It was Putin who helped Trump secure Iran's agreement to end the war with the ceasefire. And it will be Russia, working with whatever combination of factions that wind up in power in Iran that will help force it back to the negotiating table, sooner rather than later.
Because it will be Putin, not Bibi, who will also help keep the wild bull in the China shop, Trump, focused on making peace, not limited war. That's what gives London and NATO nightmares, the Trump-Putin rapprochement. It just may save the world."
Shattered Channels and Strategic Misfires
So, Trump's statements reflect his frustration more than anything else. He told reporters yesterday that the Ayatollah's speech was lying propaganda: “Look, you’re a man of great faith. A man who’s highly respected in his country. You have to tell the truth," Trump said of Khamenei. "You got beat to hell.”
Trump reported yesterday that he had been working on an extensive sanctions relief proposal for Iran, to help it rebuild after the war, only to have listened to Khamenei's "absurd" speech: I had been working on the possible removal of sanctions imposed and other measures that would give Iran a chance for "a full, fast, and complete recovery" after the war. "But no, instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more," Trump said. He stressed that Iran must cooperate and rejoin the global order or face further threats: "I wish the leadership of Iran would realize that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!" he wrote, on Truth Social.