Trump Makes Headway on Iran, Lebanon

April 18—Only a week ago, it appeared that President Donald Trump found himself stuck in Bibi Netanyahu's war in Iran, with the exit ramps being blocked, as talks with Iran and a nuclear deal had collapsed in a stalemate, and with Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz threatening to cause a global economic crash.

Now a week later, a nuclear deal and a possible memorandum of understanding on a peace plan are in reach, as sources say that a new round of talks will start within days. Meanwhile, with Iran saying that Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon threatened the fragile ceasefire in Iran, President Trump, according to several sources, literally imposed a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon on the Israelis; now, these sources report, that Trump will likely bring Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to the White House to force a broader agreement that would keep the fighting halted. And then yesterday, Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz was fully reopened to all traffic for the duration of the ceasefire, which is expected to be extended before it expires next week.

Ceasefires Imposed and Regional Pressure Builds

"There's a lot of moving parts here," said a source close to the White House, "but we are dealing with a President that wants out of Iran and finally understands that there is no military victory or regime change possible, and that the Israelis had lied to him to get him to join the war. The important thing that has changed is that Trump is no longer consulting Netanyahu on what he is doing. He is going to do what he sees necessary to end the war, and to impose this on Israel."

Sources report that this is what has been done first with the ceasefire in Iran, and now with the ceasefire in Lebanon, and that Bibi was given no choice other than comply with demands of the President.

External Analysis Underscores Strategic Shift

Writes the astute strategic analyst Amos Harel in Haaretz yesterday: "A cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon was due to take effect at midnight on Thursday, after being imposed on both sides by U.S. President Donald Trump. It is set to last for 10 days, and the administration hopes for it to become permanent at the end of that period. During the cease-fire, Israel Defense Forces units will remain in the positions they seized in southern Lebanon. However, it's possible that Washington will force withdrawals on Israel from Lebanon, as it did last year in the Gaza Strip.

"The halt in fighting comes on the heels of the cease-fire that Trump declared vis-à-vis Iran last week. In both cases, the president forced the decision on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who wants to continue the fighting on both fronts, and whose aides recently briefed reporters against a stoppage.

"In a telephone consultation with security cabinet members on Thursday evening, Netanyahu said that accepting the cease-fire is a gesture to Trump as part of Israel's effort to coordinate positions with the United States on the major issue – Iran.

"Not that Netanyahu had much of a choice. At this stage of the war, which he entered into largely due to Netanyahu's persuasion, Trump has become the final, if not the exclusive, arbiter. In fact, the contention that Israeli foreign policy was hijacked by the American president has a basis in fact. Just as Trump forced the conclusion of the previous 12-day war against Iran in June, he has now imposed temporary cease-fires in Iran and in Lebanon.

"The security cabinet members were updated only after Trump announced that he had brought about the cease-fire following calls to Netanyahu and to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Israel's citizens also learned about it from Trump's statement...

"The stoppage of fighting on the two fronts voids the war's momentum and lowers the likelihood of its resumption. Israel is halting the campaign in Lebanon with its craving half-fulfilled. Netanyahu will have a hard time persuading the public that the war's goals were achieved given that Hezbollah is not disarmed and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is still intact..."

Negotiation Leverage and Nuclear Concessions

The source close to the White House said that is precisely Trump's intention—make it difficult to impossible for Bibi to restart his wars. Meanwhile, Trump, for his own political purposes, intends to extract some things in negotiations that he cannot obtain on the battlefield. The source reported that despite statements to the contrary, Trump is prepared to move off the proposed 20-year ban on any nuclear program, to say 10 or twelve years, with a very strict inspection regimen. He will also allow Iran to deliver its 60% enriched uranium stockpile to a third party—Russia, which will hold it for the duration of the agreement or reprocess it.

The biggest leverage point that Trump has with Iran are its seized assets and relief from sanctions that have been imposed. To get everything agreed to, the sanctions would be lifted immediately, and the billions in seized funds returned.

Regional Development Plans and Political Stakes

The source reported that Trump wants Iran involved in all regional development projects, including some new initiatives around water development that would use small modular nuclear reactors to power desalination plants. On such projects, Trump wants Israeli involvement. In fact, Israel could be involved in Iranian reconstruction—something that would not be likely without a regime change in Jerusalem.

"Bibi is not a happy camper with these developments," said a source. "He will do what he can to make their implementation difficult and the get the wars going. But he cannot do that without Trump's support—and he will never have that again. Still Bibi needs Trump to have any chance of re-election. And he will have to pay a steep price for that support."