U.S. Closing in 'Histortic' Deal with Cuba: Sources
March 9—Sources closer to the White House confirmed today that ongoing discussions with the Cuban leadership are close to producing what they describe as "an historic deal" that will bind the two nations economically and end more than 60 years of Cuba's isolation under a brutal sanctions policy, in effect since the first days of the Cuban revolution in 1959.
The sources say that while there are many details that need to be worked out, the negotiations, which are under the direct supervision of President Donald Trump and carried out by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family left Cuba before Fidel Castro took over and who has been a bitter opponent of the continuing rule over Cuba by Castro's Communist Party, have intensified. Rubio, in recent weeks, has pushed Trump to institute a blockade of all oil and other energy shipments to Cuba, worsening already severely hard shipped economic conditions. The policy also threatened a confrontation with Russia, the most prominent supporter of the government in Havana, which has said it will send tankers as humanitarian aid to the Cuban people; Mexico has also continued to send oil, despite Trump's threats. But neither country can make up for the oil and gas lost as shipments from former ally Venezuela have been cut off, after Trump arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro for "drug trafficking," and seized the Venezuelan oil industry.
Proposed Agreement Aligns With Early Reports
The White House sources said that reports of the proposed agreement, whose details remain sketchy, in today's USA Today are "essentially correct."
The agreement would also ease travel restrictions between the two countries, which the sources say is intended to pump up the tourist trade, seen as a great growth engine for Cuba. Before Castro, Havana was the number one destination in Latin America for Americans who flocked to its hotels, beaches, and casinos—the latter run by the mafia, before Castro kicked them out.
Rubio’s Strategy Pivot and Trump’s Economic Vision
Many analysts had speculated that Rubio, who reportedly had Trump's backing, wanted to "squeeze" Havana in order to force a regime change. The White House sources say this was never Trump's plan, especially once Havana sent word through back channels that it wanted to make a deal. "Trump was always more interested in the economic deals that could be had, especially in the area he knows well, the tourist-driven hotel and casino industry. Trump reportedly recently told a friend that 'I would like nothing better than to see Cuba prosper, because it will mean Florida and other parts of the U.S. will prosper. Cuba has some very rich offshore oil reserves. Better to make money than war, and I don't think the Cuban people want war.'"
It was Trump, said the source, who told Rubio to pivot and to use economic leverage, rather than some military force, to seek concessions from Havana. According to the report in USA Today, discussions about the potential deal have included economic partnerships involving ports, energy development, and tourism. The White House source spoke of the scope of the deal potentially in the "hundreds of billions of dollars, over a relatively short time. This has the President's attention."
Future of Castro-Era Leadership Under Discussion
Other items that are reported to be under discussion concern what to do with the old CP leadership and the Castro family, as Cuba transitions to a new government. Sources report that the current discussions reportedly included scenarios allowing Cuban President Miguel Diaz‑Canel, who also heads the Cuban Communist Party, and members of the Castro family to remain on the island as the country transitions toward closer economic ties with the U.S.
White House sources would neither confirm nor deny that the backchannel discussions, which have involved Rubio, included Raulito Castro, the grandson of former Cuban President Raul Castro, who is said to be close to his grandfather, the brother of the late Fidel Castro.
Compensation Issues and Reversal of Prior Policies
Another discussion point in a deal will be compensation for Americans and businesses that were seized by the Cuban regime. This compensation, sources say, which would come from trade and other revenues, could run as high as 10% of estimated current value of the assets. The Cubans had previously refused to compensate people who worked for the mafia, or for owners of the sugar or banana trusts, who had exploited the Cuban people prior to Castro.
The issue of compensation was one of the sticking points in discussions on the normalization of relations with Cuba that took place during the Obama administration and had proceeded to a point of easing travel restrictions and establishing some level of diplomatic operations, before the first Trump administration, prodded by Cuban émigrés like then Sen. Marco Rubio (R‑Fla.), who Castro referred to as "Gusanos" or birdshit, reversed the process, putting severe sanctions back in place.
Trump Signals Openness as Regional Leaders Encourage Talks
Now Trump appears to want to move forward. Trump has publicly hinted at ongoing negotiations in recent days. Speaking to Latin American leaders at the Shield of the Americas Summit on Saturday, Trump suggested that Cuba's economic difficulties have made its government more willing to negotiate.
"Cuba's at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil," Trump said at the gathering in Florida. He also confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been engaged in discussions with Cuban officials.
"They want to make a deal so badly," Trump said, adding that he believes an agreement could be reached quickly. "As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we're also looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba," Trump said during the summit.
He also told the leaders from across the region that several of them had privately urged him to address the situation on the island. "Four of you said, actually, 'Could you do us a favor? Take care of Cuba,'" Trump said, without naming anyone.
Cubans Will Take 'Olive Branch'
The White House sources confirmed reports that a deal on Cuba is not likely until after military operations cease in Iran. "Our focus right now is on Iran," Trump said. "Maybe Marco takes an hour off, and then he'll finish up a deal on Cuba."
Other sources in the region said there is a lot of work to be done on such a deal, but admitted that what is being discussed, now openly, is a dramatic shift on the part of the White House. If Trump "offers the Cubans an olive branch," said a source with decades of knowledge about the situation, "they are going to take it. And they will have the full blessing of [Russian President] Vladimir Putin."