What's Really Going on with Iran U.S. Peace Talks
April 26—Despite appearances and rhetorical pronouncements from both sides, negotiations between the United States and Iran are ongoing, with proposals being exchanged and discussions taking place with Pakistani mediators.
Sources familiar with the negotiations, which are taking place in Islamabad and by phone, say that despite statements from both sides about the stumbling blocks to a deal, progress is being made, and that an agreement can be reached.
Diplomatic Movements and Missed Meetings
These sources say that a second round of negotiations was expected to take place this weekend, and that both sides had agreed that the negotiators would meet in Islamabad. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had arrived in the Pakistani city Friday night to meet with Pakistani negotiators; other members of the Iranian delegation were said to be coming for talks over the weekend. Araghchi was also going to Oman and Moscow to confer; at the latter meeting, the Russians, sources report, were to propose a plan to break the deadlock on uranium enrichment. These sources report that while they have denounced the illegal U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran, neither Russia nor China wants Iran to possess nuclear weapons.
It was in expectation of holding another round of direct talks that President Donald Trump had said April 23 he would dispatch his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. But yesterday he suddenly cancelled the travel orders when he received word that Araghchi would not confirm the talks, nor could Pakistani officials. Since the Iranian Foreign Minister had left for Oman, the two Americans would have been there with no one to talk to, and Trump just did not like that look, a source reported.
Trump’s Position and Frustrations
The president also complained that the Iranian officials scheduled to talk with his representatives were not high enough in rank. “We’re not going to be traveling 15, 16 hours to have a meeting with people that nobody ever heard of,” he said, adding: “They weren’t meeting with the leader of the country. They were meeting with other people. And I said, ‘We’re just not going to do it.’ Too much traveling, takes too long, too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person.”
“They can call me,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “We have all the cards. We’ve won everything.”
Sources report that there are a number of things leading to this dance around the negotiations. First, Trump has grown increasingly reluctant to restart a war which he believes now he was suckered into fighting with false intelligence about prospects for quick success from the Butcher of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. Trump's statements about winning everything from a military standpoint also reflect frustration that military success in striking Iranian targets has not weakened but actually increased support among the people for the mullahs.
Strategic Calculations and Regional Dynamics
Meanwhile, the Israeli campaign to decapitate the Iranian leadership, while killing prominent people, including the former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has produced chaos in governing circles, leaving hardliners who want to continue the war, or at least this version of the war, until Trump is forced to make concessions, in stronger positions. This also suits Bibi, who, unlike Trump, has a messianic view of the conflict and wants to eliminate a biblical enemy, eliminating Iran as a modern nation.
Iran, these sources say, now realizes that they have something more powerful to deploy than a nuclear weapon—their control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes one fifth of the world's energy supplies. While the Iranian economy has been severely hit by decades of U.S.-imposed sanctions, the global economy has already been more severely "sanctioned" by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Risks of Escalation and Ground War
So, sources say all this leads to calculations and miscalculations about how to proceed with peace talks. Trump, facing midterm elections in November, wants the war, which is unpopular because it serves Israel's interests and not the U.S., to end, and the Hormuz closure to end as well. But the Iranians have to be careful about how much they prod Trump, these sources say, lest his anger causes him to lash out. "He wants a peace deal," said a source who knows Trump, "but he has to be able to say that he won. He will not tolerate being played by Tehran."
Trump, meanwhile, is being told that while the time is not yet ripe for regime change, if nothing changes, and conditions get worse, maybe it will come. Trump does not yet understand that the U.S. loses whatever military advantage it might have if it is drawn into a "ground game" in Iran, where it actually fights the 2 million-strong Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). American casualties would jump quickly to the tens of thousands.
Call for Immediate Agreement
"The best solution is for both sides to make a deal now," said a source with decades of experience in the region. "Trump must walk away from the Christian Zionists and Bibi and reach a deal. The Iranians should stop pretending that they can win a fight against the United States without enormous unnecessary human suffering and reach a deal on what is important. They have the science cadre such that they can always produce a nuclear weapon. But they need economic development, and especially water resources, more than nukes. This—and the great potential role that Iran could be in a new security and development architecture for the region, one that would also involve fellow BRICS members Russia and China—is the basis for a deal. So stop the silly and petty posturing and make a deal now."
Even with all the back and forth about whether there will be talks, negotiations are taking place. Trump reported yesterday that he had received a peace plan from the Iranians, and then said he had received a second, better one ten minutes after he cancelled the talks. "They are offering a lot—some great things," said Trump, "but it is still not enough." Maybe not for a deal, but to keep talking.
It was reported this morning that Araghchi is returning to Islamabad later today, where he will be joined by other high-ranking members of Iran's team, presumably for more talks with the Pakistanis. "It is not impossible that Trump may suddenly announce that he will send the American team," said a source. "Then it is game on." The Iranians have said that they will not meet while Trump blockades traffic to their ports near the Strait. A source said this afternoon that Iranians have been told that no effective actions in that blockade would take place during talks.