Will Trump Fall Into Rubio's Cuban Wetdream?

Jan. 27—Ten days ago, President Donald Trump, in the joking manner observers have become familiar with when he talks about his foreign policy, suddenly announced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was present at the briefing, may soon have a new job. The President paused, as comedians pause before delivering their punchline, and then stated, “As President of Cuba.” There were nervous laughs among Trump’s audience, but Rubio could be seen smiling.

“That motherfucker actually half thinks that there was no joke here,” said a source close to the White House, “and some people have started to call him ‘El Presidente.’” But despite this, and Trump posts about “no oil for Cuba. None,” the source said that Trump has made no decision about what to do about Cuba, which has been under brutal American sanctions since the Cuban Revolution of 1959.

Rubio’s Obsession With Toppling Havana

But for Rubio, who is a fake “gusano” (or “bird shit,” the term Fidel Castro used to refer to Cubans he kicked out and who are now ensconced in Rubio’s home state of Florida and elsewhere in the U.S.) whose parents emigrated from Havana in 1956, achieving the final defeat of Castro’s revolution is nothing short of an obsession. And he is determined to topple the regime in Havana, which intelligence sources say poses no threat to the United States and has been cooperating with the U.S. in battling the various narco‑cartels.

These sources say Rubio has been urging Trump to go toe‑to‑toe with Havana, claiming that renewed economic pressure could topple the regime — something that intelligence sources dispute; cutting off all imported oil would further severely cripple the Cuban economy.

Leaked Document Suggests Covert Planning

As if to back Rubio and make it appear that Trump has decided to follow his Secretary of State down the Cuban rathole, the contents of a supposed working document were leaked that described the U.S. as seeking assets in Havana who could work on the inside against the regime and perhaps work to facilitate a raid similar to the one staged that snatched Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their bedroom in Caracas. The leaked document, reported on in The Wall Street Journal, also discusses finding an exit strategy for Cuba’s current president, Miguel Díaz‑Canel (who is also the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba), and key supporters, and for the 94‑year‑old brother of Fidel, Raúl Castro.

Oil Embargo Threats and the Risk of Russian Involvement

As for Trump’s threat to cut off all oil flowing to Cuba — a flow already greatly reduced by the cutoff of supplies from Venezuela — it remains just a threat. Mexico, stating that it will not be bullied by the United States, has ramped up shipments to Cuba, and its ships have not been interdicted by the U.S.

Sources say that there is much more risk involved in declaring a Cuban oil embargo than in doing a similar thing with Venezuela. Most notably, Castro over the years referred to a military treaty between Russia and Cuba that implies that Russia would come to Cuba’s aid if it were attacked. While it is not clear that this treaty exists or, rather, still exists, it has in the past given pause to policy planners who contemplated action against Havana.

“What if Rubio gets Trump to enforce an oil embargo on Cuba,” said the source, “and what if Russia decides to send several tankers loaded with oil, escorted by the Russian Navy? Does Trump really want to go to war over Cuba for no reason and screw up all his other plans with Russia and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin? I don’t think so.”

Trump Prefers a Negotiated Outcome, Not a War

“I have no doubt that Trump wants a ‘peaceful regime change’ if possible,” said the source. “Some agreement for supervised free elections and the like. Trump would like a deal, not bullets here. And if no deal is possible, he would move on. But I doubt that little Marco is going to let him off so easy.”

Back during the Obama Administration, a deal was in the works that would have normalized relations with Castro and Havana, would have allowed for free "supervised elections," and would have arrived at a formula for compensation for American assets seized by Castro at the start of the Revolution. The deal was ultimately blown up in the Senate by a faction led by then‑Sen. Marco Rubio (R‑Fla).