May 22—Sources close to the White House and familiar with ongoing negotiations to end the catastrophic war in Iran say that President Donald Trump is now considering a multi-stage approach that will end the war immediately, open the closed Strait of Hormuz, and allow for commitment by all parties to abide by existing U.N. resolutions and treaty agreements, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which Iran is a signatory and which bars it from developing a nuclear weapon. In exchange for compliance with this agreement, Iran will see the release of sanctions over time. In addition, the agreement calls for further negotiations to begin within seven days of signing on the specifics of Iran's nuclear program.

Saudi news channel Al Arabiya reported today that a draft agreement taking shape between the U.S. and Iran includes an immediate, comprehensive, and unconditional cease-fire across all arenas, according to unnamed sources familiar with the matter. However, the reported deal does not include any direct reference to the nuclear issue—a key sticking point for Israel, which had also been an issue for Trump.

According to these sources, the agreement is expected to be announced within "hours" and would take effect immediately following an official announcement by both sides. President Trump reiterated to reporters later today that Iran was "dying to make a deal."

Regional Mediation and Diplomatic Activity

Already in Tehran to push for the agreement, which would take the form of a Memorandum of Understanding, are the top Pakistani negotiators, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi. At the same time, a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the U.S. in an effort to help secure a deal to end the war with Iran and resolve outstanding issues, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Meanwhile, both the Iranians and the U.S. threw some cold water on the prospects for a quick deal, with the Iranians saying that while differences were narrowing, there were still sizeable gaps in the two positions. Earlier Friday, however, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations had shown only "slight progress."

Draft Agreement and Strait of Hormuz Proposals

The Al Arabiya report adds that the draft includes a commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure, as well as a halt to military operations and an end to the "media war" between the sides. It also emphasizes respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, alongside non-interference in their internal affairs.

In addition, the draft agreement includes guarantees to preserve freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman, the establishment of a joint mechanism for oversight and dispute resolution, as well as the opening of negotiations on remaining disputed issues within seven days of the agreement taking effect.

Sources report that Iran has offered that the Strait be administered by an international body, created by the United Nations. Rather than collect "tolls" to be charged on individual ships, this body would collect fees from the oil cartel, OPEC, as well as from national oil and energy companies from non-OPEC states. A portion of these funds would be given to Iran and Oman. It is thought that such an arrangement would be acceptable to Trump.

Political Pressures on Trump

Trump continues to say that if no acceptable deal can be reached, he is prepared to relaunch the war, with a massive strike on Iran, including heavy attacks on civilian infrastructure. He had called off an attack that he claimed was scheduled for May 19 at the request of Pakistan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, who said that progress was being made on a peace deal. But some sources doubted that Trump had indeed ordered such an attack. Haaretz reported that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were unaware of any planned attack and had no plans to initiate action on May 19.

Also, the timing—May 19—was bizarre in that it was the same day as key GOP primaries where Trump was seeking to oust opponents of his Iran war policy. Such an attack would have likely lost him those efforts, which, in the case of Rep. Tom Massie (Ky.) and Sen. Robert Cassidy (La.), he won and has been bragging about ever since.

"Trump has received the word—there is no support for the continuation of the war," said a source. "If the war continues, and the economic dislocation continues, he has been told, he will not just lose the midterm elections, he will be crushed. Trump can smile and say it is not true, but his polling numbers are at historic lows. And, he has been told by his negotiators that a bombing attack on Iran, which targets civilian infrastructure, will make matters worse and will not end the war.

Congressional Resistance and Strategic Calculations

"Trump needs a way out and the way out is accepting the best deal possible," the source continued, "and work with it. From his standpoint and not the Israelis. He says otherwise, but the majority of Americans believe that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Bibi Netanyahu suckered him into this unwinnable war that is in Israel's interests but not ours. This puts Trump squarely on the side of genocide, which is what Bibi is all about. And now he wants him to do this against the Iranian people which he claims to want to save."

Things got worse for Trump yesterday, when the GOP leadership in the House had to scramble and use legislative tricks to prevent a vote that had been scheduled on a War Powers resolution that would have forced Trump on paper to seek Congressional approval for the war. Two days ago, the GOP leadership was sure it would fail; by yesterday afternoon, they were sure it would pass, as much of the party was in revolt against what they saw as an out-of-touch President.

In addition, sources report that a similar resolution has a good chance to pass the Senate. Last week, it failed by one vote, 49-50. Now, Sen. Cassidy (R-La.), who Trump bragged about defeating, says he will vote against Trump and in favor of it.

Nuclear Negotiations and Prospects for Agreement

"The Iranians are watching all of this," said the source. "They are not stupid. Now, the key thing is that they must not be greedy. The war is a stupid mistake. They can last out in a war of attrition, but why should they cause their people to suffer, since they can get rid of the killer sanctions and become part of potential regional development plans."

This and other sources say that the two sides are also not really all that far apart on the nuclear program. Iran is reportedly willing to suspend its enrichment program for 15 years; Trump has asked for 20. The U.S. is reportedly willing to allow Iran to enrich small amounts of uranium for peaceful purposes, at new facilities that will be built above ground and be inspected by the UN's IAEA inspectors. Iran must close its existing underground sites, which were the subject of massive bombing in the 12-day war last summer. As for the 900 pounds of enriched uranium, which is reportedly buried at one of those sites and which new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says Iran will never give up, sources say that Iran is indeed willing to turn it over to a third party, perhaps Türkiye, but more likely Russia.

"There's a deal here," said another source. "The same deal that could have been had without this stupid war. Trump has a way out, if he is smart enough to take it, and if he is willing to force Bibi to go along."

Negotiations are expected to continue into the weekend.