Gaza Deal Depends on Trump Pushing Bibi
Aug. 12—With Israel facing political convulsions as a result of the Butcher of Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's decision to go for the final kill in Gaza and totally occupy the territory—at the risk of letting all remaining living hostages be killed—the ability to force through a workable deal with Hamas depends on how "rough" President Donald Trump is willing to get with the Israeli leader.
Sources close to the White House say that Trump's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has worked out, with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, a plan that would see the release of all hostages—living and dead—at once, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza within 60 days. That withdrawal would be supervised by the mediators, including the United States. As part of this deal, Hamas would be demilitarized under the supervision of the mediators, and its leaders sent into exile along with many of its so-called fighters.
A New Government and Humanitarian Relief for Gaza
Hamas would play no role in a new Gazan government, created under the supervision of the mediators, which would immediately begin working on plans for reconstruction and development of the land that has been reduced to an unlivable rubble heap by Israelis.
The agreement would begin with an immediate ceasefire, during which Israeli forces would cease blocking the influx of massive food and humanitarian aid for Gaza's starving and stricken population. That aid would be distributed by reputable international agencies, including the United Nations, coordinated under a plan soon to be announced by the United States. The role of the hated Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF)—an American-backed entity that has distributed food at limited sites that have become killing fields for starving Gazans, fired upon by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and private security hired by the GHF—remains unclear. The foundation’s operations have reportedly claimed thousands of lives.
Mounting Pressure on Netanyahu from Allies and the IDF
Netanyahu continues to reiterate his claim that there is no starvation in Gaza, saying on Aug. 10: "If we wanted starvation, two million Gazans would not be alive today. If we wanted to carry out genocide, it would have taken exactly one afternoon. There is no policy of starvation; there was a shortage that needed to be stopped. And that is exactly what we are doing." Such statements infuriate President Trump, sources report, who has told Bibi to stop denying the reality "I can see and people can see with their eyes."
Sources report that the plan is being presented to Hamas today in Cairo by Egyptian mediators, who have conveyed the message from Witkoff that it represents the only way to avoid further slaughter of Palestinians in the proposed Israeli occupation, which will start with an assault on Gaza City. The sources say that Hamas has come to realize that "they are over. They can have no political role in Gaza. They will either take this safe passage or be eliminated in bloody battle, that Bibi has proposed. If they take the deal, they will have done some for the people they have ruled over by force, and caused their slaughter with the murderous Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which led to more than 200,000 Palestinian casualties."
Hamas Loses Support as Israeli Opposition Grows
Important in this equation is that Hamas backers—the Iranians—have reportedly told the Hamas leadership that they can no longer supply them with weapons and funds. Their only other source of money and weapons had been Bibi, who had helped create Hamas as a buffer in Gaza against the Palestinian Authority. In order to push through the deal, the Israelis have been promised that the PA will not be part of the new Gazan government.
With the removal of Hamas as the governing authority in Gaza, it is thought that the IDF will play a role in policing the area until a Palestinian structure to do that job can be put in place. There is also the possibility that some Arab nations might assist in this in a transitional role, although none, as of yet, have agreed to do so.
Witkoff and the mediators believe that they have a chance to sell their plan now to the Israelis because of the explosion of opposition to Bibi's Gaza occupation plan, which is strenuously opposed by the leadership of the IDF—including its chief, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir—who have given the mediators some important space and time by insisting that he will not have sufficient forces to carry out Bibi's plans for nearly two months. Zamir has further inflamed opposition by saying that he will need to conscript 200,000 recruits, since reservists are refusing Gaza duty.
Most importantly, Zamir has contradicted Netanyahu's claim that his action could rescue the remaining hostages. Zamir has said that it is likely such action would cause all of them to be killed.
Domestic Unrest and International Condemnation Intensify
"Netanyahu is having trouble selling his usual shtick. He's trying to market the security cabinet's decision to send ground forces into Gaza City as a new move that will finally defeat Hamas. But few are willing to buy this stale promise. Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir is convinced that his more limited plan is better. The far-right parties, which demanded the move, think it doesn't go far enough. And most Israelis would apparently prefer to end the war and sign a hostage deal, even at a high price," so wrote the respected Amos Harel in Haaretz yesterday.
Netanyahu's plan has sparked the largest antiwar demonstrations so far, bringing nearly a million people into the streets over the weekend to demand an end to the war and a peace deal to return the hostages. Polls have shown that the vast majority of Israelis want the war to end, and they are not interested in Bibi's plans to exterminate Hamas. Nor do they support announced plans from the lunatic wing of Bibi's coalition, led by Bezalel Smotrich (Finance Minister) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security Minister), to populate parts of occupied Gaza with Israeli settlements.
Smotrich said he wants large parts of Gaza to remain under Israeli control and be settled, acknowledging that PM Netanyahu opposes the plan. "I don't think this is the right time to have that debate. I'm conducting it behind closed doors – I'm not blowing everything up over it," he told Israel's public broadcaster.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will never accept Witkoff's new plan and have denounced previous deals as delaying the moves to destroy Hamas. If Bibi accepts even parts of the plan, the two would leave the coalition and could collapse it. But if the war and protests continue—with the hostage families promising to lead a total shutdown of the Israeli economy—Bibi could lose a vote of confidence in the Knesset in the fall, which would force an election, likely next year.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told the daily La Stampa on Aug. 11 that Israel's offensive in Gaza is not "a military operation with collateral damage, but the pure denial of the law and the founding values of our civilization ... beyond condemnation, we must now find a way to force Netanyahu to think clearly."
"Trump is going to have to force the issue and set the agenda here," said a source with 50 years of experience in the region. "He is going to have to tell Bibi that he is the President of the United States, and 'you will have to do what I say. You have made Israel into a pariah state, which does not have the support for your policies among most Jews in the world and in the U.S. We have worked a plan for get you out of the mess you created, and to end this slaughter of mostly innocent women and children. You will take this deal, or you will suffer the consequences.'
"Bibi can then say he was forced to do this," said the source. "If he gets the remaining hostages returned and he ends the war, then he just might win re-election—if he is not tossed into jail for corruption. This all depends on how committed Trump is to ending the war and returning the hostages. He says he is, but the test of that is coming soon. It is already here."