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Postol: Are They Aware of What they Are Doing?

May 29—Well-known nuclear weapons expert Dr. Theodore Postol assesses the great danger of the first, and now a second attack on Russia’s early-warning radars, first at Armavir and now at Orsk. His message, as quoted May29 in X by Mats Nilsson includes two charts (“Russian Radar Early Warning Timelines” and “Estimated Time Needed To Carry Out Basic Nuclear Weapons Launch-Operations”) not displayed here, of Russia’s potentially reduced time available to decide whether to react to a nuclear threat. Postol warns:

“Ukrainians have now attacked a second critical Russian nuclear strategic early warning radar at Orsk.

“This radar looks towards the Indian Ocean and has some overlap with the radar fans from the already damaged radar at Armavir.

“The initial indicators are that the amount of damage to the Orsk is likely limited, but it cannot be ruled out that the radar is not functioning for the moment due to the attack.

“This is a very serious situation.

“Unlike the United States, the Russians do not have space-based satellite warning systems that can see ballistic missile attacks globally. This means that the radar coverage lost by the attacks on these radars greatly reduces the warning time against attacks on Moscow from the Mediterranean and Indian oceans.

“The Russians have a radar operating in Moscow that can see arriving warheads but they would only begin to see the warheads above the horizon at very short times before impacts.

“My estimates (based on real analysis, not bullshit) is that the radar early morning time has been reduced from about 15 to 16 minutes to about 10 to 11.

“This amount of warning time might quite possibly eliminate the possibility of any deliberation-time on the part of Russian leaders if they were confronted with a decision of whether or not to launch Russian strategic nuclear forces in response to a nuclear attack on Moscow.

“Russian political leadership in Moscow would have almost no time to assess the situation if they believed a possible attack from the south was underway.

“The extreme time-pressure on Russian leadership could thereby significantly increase the possibilities of a catastrophic nuclear accident.

“The fact that Blinken and his national security team have provided a ‘go ahead’ to the Ukrainian government to attack Russian sites outside of Ukraine, means that either Blinken has recklessly told Ukrainians they can engage in such acts that would have a potentially catastrophic consequence for the United States, and the entire planet.

“If Blinken is not aware of the danger that is posed by these attacks, he is so incompetent that he should be removed along with his entire team from any position of authority.

“If he is aware of this danger, you should also be removed with his entire national security team.

“I have extensive personal experiences with people at the White House that indicate to me it is entirely possible that Blinken and his team are not aware of the dangers they are knowingly allowing to occur.

“I will not spend time herein describing my personal experiences and observations, but I can do so at any time on any notice. It cannot be ruled out that the White House is completely unaware of the danger.

“Please feel free to give me a call at any time if you would like to hear further about my concerns.

“I cannot emphasize enough how frightening and dangerous this development is—at least to me, who I think can claim a rather detailed knowledge of the nuclear strike systems of both Russia and United States.”

Prof. Theodore A Postol 

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