Has Putin Outflanked Global NATO, Bibi on Iran?

Aug. 11—Any smart betting man or woman, with knowledge of global affairs, would place all their chips on Russian President Vladimir Putin if the other side of the wager is so-called strategists of Global NATO and the Butcher of Gaza, the self-deluded messianic Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu.

Informed sources report that Putin has wiped the floor with these clowns and has almost certainly wiped out their scheme for a wider war in Southwest Asia against Iran—one that would have pulled the dim-witted giant, the United States in on their side. While there are still many pratfalls and potential problems, these sources report that the Russian President’s direct and forceful intervention into the crisis unleashed by Bibi’s wave of assassinations of Palestinian leaders, most notably murdering Hamas’ political leader and chief negotiator for a ceasefire/hostage deal Ismail Haniyeh while in Tehran July 30, has caused the Iranian leadership to consider but a limited response against Israel and a response by its ally, Hezbollah, limited to military targets.

More importantly, Putin’s intervention has delayed any such response; it has created the potential necessary space to finally ram through the deal for a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, perhaps as soon as this coming week, the which will rapidly de-escalate the current crisis and as a byproduct lead to the toppling of the insane Netanyahu-led government in Israel.

Putin’s intervention consisted partly of some direct phone work to Arab leaders in the region, asking them to urge caution on the new Iranian government of President Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for any response be measured and directed against military targets only. Putin pointed out to these leaders, and later in an as yet officially unconfirmed call to President Pezeshkian that the assassination of Haniyeh had not killed any Iranians, and in fact had involved an internal breach of security and deployment of Iranian assets.

Realizing that Pezeshkian was under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was responsible for the security of the house  Haniyeh was murdered, most likely by a planted bomb triggered remotely, as well as from the hardline Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called for a massive reprisal against Israel and its American sponsors, Putin dispatched to Iran his trusted aide, Secretary of the Russian Security Council and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for a series of meetings with Iranian leaders. Shoigu delivered a letter from Putin urging caution and a moderate response, telling Iranians not to fall into the trap being set. Minimally, having such a high-level official as Shoigu on site delayed any possible response.

At the Aug. 7 Extraordinary Foreign Ministers Meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, attended by representatives from Iran, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar called for cool heads and for perseverance along a diplomatic path—saying that the assassination must be avenged, but that “we must not fulfill Benjamin Netanyahu’s design for a wider war.” Echoing Putin’s message, he said the Israeli prime minister was seeking to set a trap.

“Putin offered the Iranians Russian military aid, but only in the form of new equipment including an advanced air defense system,” a source stated. “But he made it clear that were there to be any kind of over-response, especially one that hit civilian targets in Israel, they would get no backing from Russia. There is simply no backing, despite the rhetoric, for a wider war, from Russia or anywhere in the region. This had to cause saner heads in Iran to put things on hold and reconsider a response.”

“An overly aggressive action ... will bring about a harsh response from Israel and plunge the Middle East into a situation very close to all-out war.... [Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali] Khamenei, [Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah and others are signaling clearly that they are not afraid of a general confrontation, but at the same time are making it clear that they don’t want one,” wrote Amos Harrel in Haaretz Aug. 9.

“Reports from the United States indicate that President Joe Biden has managed to convince Iran to limit the extent of its retaliation against Israel. Combined with America’s notable display of military power in the region, the reports bolster the assessment that Iran’s response, assuming there will be one, will be ‘proportionate.’ In other words, the response won’t make Israel and the U.S. feel obligated to respond,” commentator Zvi Bar’el wrote in Haaretz Aug. 10.

“In addition, the Russians urged Iran to caution Hezbollah, whose military commander Faud Shakr, Israeli forces assassinated outside Beirut. Putin does not want the war extended to Lebanon,” the source said. “This is a more dicey situation because Bibi has the lunatics in the settler movement, which is really an armed militia, to deploy to inflame. There is little that Putin can do to stop them. The only solution to this crisis, and one that would defuse the whole thing, would be a peace deal in Gaza. Were that to occur, Hezbollah has agreed to withdraw its forces behind the Blue Line of demarcation dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights, published by the UN June 7, 2000. I would think that Iran will hold off.

“Putin is also making a play here, and without breaching confidences, let me say that there is discussion with saner elements in the United States through back channels. Yeah, the global NATO crowd in Washington is pushing for war, and there is a lame duck occupying the Oval Office, who can be played. But there are still some people who want to end this war and even end Bibi, who is a classic breakaway ally, who takes actions that actually pull the larger power into their wake (and this is one of them). So, while some would dismiss it, there is a real push for a Gaza peace deal to be concluded by week’s end, with Bibi forced to sign it.”

 Biden, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani issued a joint statement yesterday, calling on both Israel and Hamas to sign the ceasefire deal, based on the outline presented by Biden in a May 31 speech and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735. “It is time to bring immediate relief both to the long-suffering people of Gaza as well as the long-suffering hostages and their families. The time has come to conclude the ceasefire and hostages and detainees release deal,” the statement opens.

“There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement…,” the statement continues. As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties. We have called on both sides to resume urgent discussion on Thursday, August 15 in Doha or Cairo to close all remaining gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay.”

Sources report that the new diplomatic offensive is being handled not by the State Department but by America’s most able diplomat, CIA Director William Burns, who has extensive contacts and channels into the Iranian leadership.

Bibi’s office issued a statement saying that he was authorizing an Israeli negotiator team to go. But sources report that he had no choice in this; he was told by the chiefs of Israeli intelligence, who have been leading the negotiating, and the Israel Defense Forces, that they would go regardless of what Netanyahu says, and told him so. “The military wants to end this war in Gaza yesterday,” said a source. “It is the only way to prevent a wider war on the West Bank and into Lebanon. In this, they are reflecting the will of the majority of the Israeli people, who are tired of Bibi’s wars and want peace and no more of him.”

Last week, these military and intelligence leaders leaked to the press the contents of an Israeli Security Council meeting, which makes it plain that they regard Bibi, not Hamas, as the sole obstacle to a settlement. In the leaked report, whose content was broadcast on Israel TV Channel 12, they claimed that the deal is already on the table and Bibi’s demands, which had delayed the agreement, could be dealt with by the military. They urged him to sign the deal and he threw a rug-chewing, Hitler-like fit, denouncing them as “weaklings” and “Incompetent,” just like Adolf Hitler denounced his generals when they told him the war was lost.

There is enormous pressure coming from most Israeli factions for peace, led by the families of the hostages who are now openly saying that Bibi wants the hostages killed to fuel his drive for total annihilation of the Palestinians. Large protests demanding the release of hostages and opposing Israel’s ruling coalition took place countrywide on  Aug. 10 evening. “Israel’s military pressure on Hamas will cause more hostages to die,” said Shay Mozes at a protest outside the Defense Ministry HQ in Tel Aviv. Mozes’ uncle, Gadi Mozes, is among those being held hostage in Gaza. Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is also a captive in Gaza, blasted PM Netanyahu for “using hostages as pawns to preserve his power.”

But Bibi and his allies, which include the leadership of the Israeli Air Force, are not giving up on their efforts to sabotage the peace deal. Rescue services in Gaza reported that over 90 people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a school in Gaza City where displaced people were sheltering overnight into Aug. 10. The casualties included many women and children. The attack, which a military spokesman claimed was directed against Hamas and terrorist infrastrucure, has received worldwide denunciation, including from the United States. which called it "troubling.".

Meanwhile, after lunatic National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s intervention, Israeli Police gave right-wing activists permission to hold an event today calling for Israeli settlements in Gaza near the Al-Aqsa Mosque, even though they had initially refused to do so. This deliberately provocative demo could lead to confrontations with Moslem worshippers and others—which is what insane Ben-Gvir wants.

And, as if to demonstrate the contradictory character of United States policy, CNN, citing several sources, reported Aug. 9 that the Biden Administration is releasing $3.5 billion, as part of a $14.1 billion package passed by Congress in April, so Israel can procure more U.S. weapons and military systems. Those weapons and systems are only being built now, however, and won’t be delivered for several years, the sources claimed.

“This is what Putin has to contend with,” said the source. ‘He has to filter out all the nonsense and discover the flank in the mind of his adversary, and then exploit that weakness to create a positive outcome. It is not easy, and despite one’s best efforts, sometimes it doesn't work. We will soon see in how this plays out and  if he has pulled this off.”