Russian Military Analyst Says Ukrainian Kursk Offensive Will Be Disastrous for Ukraine in the Long Term

Aug. 11—Evgeny Krutikov, military analyst for the military-linked Vzglyad publication, argued in an Aug. 8 article that the Ukrainian strategy in Kursk is a good one in the short term, but will cost them dearly in the long term. The article is reviewed in English by a Russian blogger who goes by the handle “Yalensis,” who reports that Krutikov cites Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Office of the Ukrainian President, announcing  Aug. 8 that Ukraine had invaded the border areas of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, for the purpose of “improving its negotiating position.” His opinion is that loss of Russian lives, equipment, and territory, will have a positive impact on future negotiations.

Krutikov reports that Ukrainian forces did not stop to occupy Sudzha but rather passed through on their way to other places. He names Korenevo, Rylsk, Lgov and Kurchatov—“the last-named raising much consternation, since it is the site of the Kursk Atomic Energy Plant,” he says. “Videos showed how Ukrainian columns drove along main roads, each column defended by anti-air and radio-electronic devices which managed to jam Russian drone groups, aviation, and communications among units. Nevertheless, these columns were subject to the brute force of Russian aviation, and were destroyed.”

Krutikov cites a report in the Washington Post which speculates on three main strategic reasons why the Ukrainians would undertake such an adventure, instead of using these elite troops to defend Donbass positions. These reasons, in summary, are: 1) shock the Russian people, 2) lure Russian troops from the Donbass front—where Ukrainian lines are on the verge of collapsing—and 3) buy Ukraine a better negotiating position at the bargaining table, once the peace talks finally begin.

But Krutikov concludes that this Kursk operation will ultimately fail. “It’s just a short-term fix,” he says. “The utter destruction of the invading forces is inevitable, it’s only a question of time.” Kiev also knows that once Russian forces clear the Kursk region, they won’t be stopping at the border, but rather will drive on and take Ukraine’s Sumy region. And thus, for the price of a few days of euphoria, Kiev will pay, in the end, with the loss of a chunk of their Sumy Oblast, Krutikov concludes.