Russians, Israeli Intelligence, Burns Keep Lid on West Bank/Lebanon War—for Now

Aug. 27—Well-placed sources report that a joint effort by Israeli intelligence and Hezbollah, with the backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and with a push from CIA Director William Burns, who is directing negotiations in Cairo for a ceasefire/hostage release deal in Gaza, have been successful in keeping the lid on the possibility of wider war in the West Bank and Lebanon desired by the co-evil twin murderers Yahya Sinwar, Chairman of Hamas’ Political Bureau, and Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, Israel’s messianic Prime Minister.

Hezbollah fired missiles and drones Aug. 25 at 11 military targets in Israel, avoiding civilians and infrastructure. One of the key targets was a Mossad base outside of Tel Aviv, where the attack that assassinated Hezbollah military commander Faud Shukr July 30 was coordinated.

According to Israeli media, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said they had detected that Hezbollah was preparing to fire thousands of rockets and drones into northern and central Israel, and that the IDF preemptively attacked thousands of rocket launchers in Lebanon with more than 100 fighter jets. Some 200 launches from Lebanon were identified, the IDF said, adding that it estimated Hezbollah intended to hit intelligence and Mossad bases in central Israel.

There were few casualties reported on either side.

In a government meeting Aug, 25 at Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said that while “we foiled the planned attack, … this is not the end of the story,” adding, “[the Lebanese cleric and Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan] Nasrallah in Beirut and [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei in Tehran should know that this is another step on the way to changing the situation in the north.”

Hezbollah announced that it had completed “the first phase” of its response to the assassination of its senior commander Shukr, and claimed to have launched more than 320 rockets, as well as drones that targeted 11 IDF assets. Hamas and the Iran-backed Houthis praised the attack, with the latter vowing that its contribution “is inevitably coming.”

In a televised speech, Hezbollah’s General-Secretary Hassan Nasrallah said that his organization decided not to respond to Shukr’s assassination by targeting civilian areas or infrastructure, but instead decided to target military sites near Tel Aviv, including a military intelligence base where the Israeli surveillance unit operates. He added that after his group’s retaliation would come responses by Iran and Yemen’s Houthis.

A Hezbollah official told media outlets that the group’s retaliation for Shukr’s killing had been delayed by “political considerations,” chief among them the ongoing talks for a cease-fire/hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, and that the group had “worked” to ensure its response would not trigger a full-scale war.

So much for the official statements and Bibi’s chest beating bullshit. Sources report that the parameters for both the response and counter response were established in back-channel communications between Israeli intelligence and Hezbollah conducted through intermediaries. In addition, there were discussions, both directly and indirectly, between the Russians and their ally Iran that sponsors and arms Hezbollah, in which it was conveyed in no uncertain terms that Putin did not want and will not support a wider war that leads to a regional conflict. Similarly, Burns communicated the same message through his channels into Iran, but also directly to Israeli intelligence Directors Ronan Bar of Shin Bet and David Barnea of Mossad. With their help and with the help of the IDF leadership, Netanyahu’s desire and threat to launch provocations that might have led to a wider war was contained.

“The goal,” said a source, “was to not give Bibi any excuse for him to demand more vengeance. He could hardly lash out if Hezbollah only went for military and intelligence targets, which limited civilian casualties to virtually nothing. Nasrallah is no fool. He learns from past mistakes. Hezbollah has basically been biding its time, waiting for a deal in Gaza, then one for the West Bank that could be pushed through over the objections of Bibi. For the time being, this like cabinet warfare, conducted according to some set rules, which Netanyahu had to choke on. This phase is over.”

Reflecting what the source said, citing diplomats, Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged messages via intermediaries in order to prevent further escalation, two diplomats told Reuters, with one adding that the main message was that both sides considered Sunday’s intense exchange was “done” and that neither side wanted a full-scale war.

“Hezbollah’s statement Aug. 25 that the attack planned for that date had concluded, ostensibly indicates that the most dangerous part of the present escalation between Hezbollah and Israel is over…. Hezbollah is choosing, as it usually does in such cases, to lie to the Lebanese public and the Arab countries when things aren’t working out as it would like. Its statement claims that the attack achieved its goals and that it managed to penetrate Israel with waves of drones. Perhaps this is indeed a reason for some satisfaction: Maybe the Shi’ite leaders are trying to calm things down,” writes the respected commentator Amos Harel in Haaretz Aug. 25.

“The coming attacks, especially by Iran, will be a little trickier,” said the source. “The very fact that such attacks will be coming from Iran causes problems for some people who think of Iran as the center of evil in the region. That could give Bibi a wider berth, so to speak, for countermeasures. But there is every indication that the Iranians—or at least the new government—want to prevent a wider war, one that could bring in the United States. They want to de-escalate, and their response could be tempered, as Putin urges. The key is that he [Putin] is not just speaking for Russia, but for the entire BRICS economic alliance, of which Iran is a new member. The BRICS want to take part in development plans, and, I am told, will offer to participate in the reconstruction of Gaza. Iran could play a positive role in all of this, and all of that can happen, if the deal is signed that will end Bibi’s murderous rampage in Gaza. That deal is the key to a pathway for peace. Let’s see what happens in Cairo and beyond.”