The Oreshnik Is a New Strategic Factor in Warfare

July 11—Russian military expert Dmitry Kornev, in an RT article July 9, argues that the emergence of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile “suggests that Russia is rewriting the rules of strategic deterrence—not with treaty-breaking escalation, but with something quieter, subtler, and potentially just as decisive.” His theme throughout is that the Oreshnik has strategic implications, but without crossing the nuclear threshold. This is precisely the point made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, when it made its first appearance in 2024.

Kornev’s description of how the Oreshnik works points to an entirely new principle: a weapon that depends not on blast effect to destroy its target, but on the kinetic energy of multiple projectiles striking the target at hypersonic speeds. “One of the defining features of the system is its ability to maintain hypersonic velocity during the final phase of flight,” Kornev writes. "Unlike traditional ballistic warheads that decelerate as they descend, Oreshnik reportedly retains speeds exceeding Mach 10, possibly Mach 11, even in dense atmospheric layers. This enables it to strike with massive kinetic energy, increasing penetration and lethality without requiring a large explosive charge.

“At such speeds, even a non-nuclear warhead becomes a strategic weapon,” Kornev continues. "A concentrated high-velocity impact is enough to destroy command bunkers, radar sites, or missile silos. The weapon’s effectiveness doesn’t rely on blast radius, but on precise, high-energy delivery. That makes it both harder to detect and harder to intercept.

“In doctrinal terms, Oreshnik represents a new category: A non-nuclear strategic ballistic missile. It occupies the space between conventional long-range strike systems and nuclear ICBMs—with enough reach, speed, and impact to alter battlefield calculations, but without crossing the nuclear threshold.”

What the Oreshnik makes possible is a new strategic doctrine, one based on a weapon with strategic reach and impact but with a non-nuclear warhead. “By combining intercontinental reach, hypersonic speed, and precision penetrative capability, the system introduces a new tier of force: One that sits below the nuclear threshold, but far above conventional long-range artillery or cruise missiles,” Kornev writes. "Unlike nuclear warheads, Oreshnik’s payloads can be used without inviting global condemnation or risking escalation beyond control. Yet their destructive potential—especially against hardened military targets or critical infrastructure— makes them a credible tool of strategic coercion.

“This is the core of what we can call a ‘non-nuclear deterrence doctrine’: The ability to achieve battlefield or political objectives through advanced conventional systems that mimic the strategic impact of nuclear weapons—without crossing the line,” he concludes. “In this emerging framework, Oreshnik is not just a missile. It is a prototype of future war logic: Fast enough to strike before detection, survivable enough to evade interception, and powerful enough to shape decisions before war even begins.”