Israel Launches ‘Limited’ Invasion of Southern Lebanon
Oct. 1—After two weeks of so-called “precision” air strikes that decapitated the entire Hezbollah chain of command, including its leader and co-founder Hassan Nasrallah, and that killed more than 1,000 and seriously wounded more that 4,000 others, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced today that they had begun a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, The IDF said the operation was limited and intended to destroy Hezbollah positions and infrastructure that threaten Israel’s northern border, and to drive Hezbollah back north across the Litani River, as mandated by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the second War in Lebanon in 2006.
While dangerous, this is not the all-out offensive against Hezbollah and full-scale invasion that the Butcher of Gaza, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu had intended, which would bring his all-out slaughter of Palestinians to the West Bank and Lebanon. Such a full-scale offensive would likely have triggered a response from Iran—a response that Bibi wanted, in order to bring the U.S. directly into the war. Sources say this smaller operation, therefore, still offers a chance to work out some kind of deal, both for Gaza and for the northern flank, before everything spirals out of control into a dangerous regional war.
Sources say that it is the IDF military command and intelligence services that are running this action. Despite some blood curdling statements about showing vengeance against terrorists who have directed attacks on Israel, and weakening Iran’s main proxy, the IDF command has resisted Bibi and his blood-purge of Palestinians. “They do not want another Gaza,” said the source. “People I have talked to in the military say it will take decades for the IDF to recover from how it was used by Bibi in his attempt to reduce Gaza to a hell on Earth, to kill possibly as many as 200,000 innocent civilians. The IDF wants this operation to be finished quickly, and they do not want to occupy the area, just as they do not support Bibi’s plans to permanently occupy Gaza. So far, there has been little resistance—almost no fighting in the early stage of the invasion. That might indicate that Hezbollah is actually going to withdraw, which would be a good thing, under the circumstances. But more likely, there will be some stiff resistence at some point from the well-trained and armed Hezbollah, which could make even this operation quite bloody.”
Meanwhile, this morning the IDF reported that their intention in this limited invasion was not restricted to rendering it impossible for Hezbollah to launch missiles and drones against targets in northern Israel, but to make it impossible for them to stage a new, even larger Oct. 7 style invasion and slaughter of thousand of civilians. The IDF said that they have proof that Hezbollah was actively planning an invasion of more 3,000 of its forces, scheduled to take place around the anniversary of Oct. 7; the planning for that raid was disrupted by a strike on a planning meeting two week ago for it that killed more than a dozen of Hezbollah's top commanders. The source confirmed these reports of such plans.
This and other sources report that the Lebanese Army was informed of the proposed Israeli action by their IDF counterparts, and the Lebanese government has confirmed that the Army has pulled all its forces out of the area. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army has informed the IDF that once the IDF leaves, it is prepared to go back in to police the area and prevent Hezbollah’s re-entry. This was confirmed Sept. 30 by Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who said that his government is ready to implement UN Resolution 1701 and send the Lebanese Army to the south of the country, to ensure that the region remains demilitarized from Israel’s border with Lebanon up to the Litani River.
President “Sleepy Joe” Biden was informed of the pending Israeli action well in advance and gave his approval—although it is doubtful that if he opposed it,m that anyone would have listened to him. “No one in Israel gives a f**k about what Sleepy Joe thinks about anything, if he can think at all,” a source said. "When approached by the press, Biden seemed to say the operation would be quick and was not going to lead to a wider war, which Bibi clearly wants.”
When asked about reports of an imminent IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon, Biden said he is “more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a cease-fire now.”
(Meanwhile, there is a tempest in a teapot as to whether the Israelis, and particularly Netanyahu, had informed the White House in advance of the plans to murder Nasrallah in a strike Sept. 25, despite the fact that the IDF used U.S.-provided F-35 advanced fighters to deliver U.S.-provided 2,000-lb. "bunker buster" bombs to do the job. Bibi’s office says that the U.S. was informed in advance; Biden says he wasn’t. Regardless, sources report that the U.S. did know in advance of the attack, having obtained information from covert operatives inside the Israeli security srvices, who report to U.S. intelligence. “Of course we spy on the Israelis,” said a source, “and they spy on us.”)
How this all plays out depends on three factors, sources with knowledge of the situation report:
First, the new leadership of Hezbollah needs to decide if they want to fight a bloody all-out war which ultimately, they cannot win, because Israel has what is called “escalatory dominance”; In other words, Israel has the ability bring much larger forces and weapons into the fight than Hezbollah, or any of militias, combined. If Hezbollah’s new leader wants his organization to survive this current crisis, he has to go for a deal—something that the martyred Nasrallah was prepared to do.
Second, how Iran will respond to this attack on Hezbollah, its main proxy in the region. Iran has already told Hezbollah that they will not send Iranian forces into the fight; that Hezbollah needs to take Israel on by themselves. Meanwhile, the U.S. has warned Iran publicly and through backchannels not to enter or escalate this fight—or suffer consequences. Israel has to convince the Iranians not to retaliate; that should they do so, Israel will not show restraint as they did in its response to Iran’s mass drone attack April 13.
Third, the outcome will depend on the efforts of America’s most able diplomat, CIA Director William Burns, to cobble together a peace deal in Gaza. He has a workable proposal in his briefcase which Hamas has in principle agreed to, for an all-in-one-phase deal, which will return all the Hamas-held hostages (dead and alive) and release all the Israeli-held prisoners, with a permanent cease-fire, which, if not violated, would allow emergency aid to flow freely, and for reconstruction to begin. Hassan Nasrallah had said that such a deal would end his war with Israel and pave the way for a negotiated peace on the northern front. Will the new leader, who has yet to be confirmed, back away from this? It remains to be seen. There is certainly a lot of pressure, including from Iran, sources say, to move forward along this path.
But there is also another factor: Bibi himself. Benjamin Netanyahu wants a war without end, in order to prolong his prime-ministership. As soon as he loses his grip on that office, he faces no less than three separate corruption trials, each of which could land him in a prison cell. It therefore serves his purpose, if not the people of Israel, to prolong the war, even if most of the world says otherwise.
“There really cannot be any peace as long a Netanyahu stays in office,” said a source. “Any peace deal in Gaza ends his coalition. But someone needs to find the guts to push this through and back Bibi into a political corner. Get that done. On the northern front, he was forced to accept that the struggle there, is about returning the 80,000 Israelis to the safety of the homes they were forced to leave when Hezbollah started firing its missiles after Oct. 7. This time, Bibi cannot claim the mission is exterminating Hezbollah, as he would have preferred, and which could never be done. Let’s see how this plays out.”
Meanwhile, the Shin Bet security service said Sept. 30 that it had thwarted attempts by Iran to assassinate senior Israeli officials inside Israel, with some attempts being in the advanced stages of planning and close to execution. The agency warned of an increase in these attempts in recent weeks, noting that Iran is working to recruit Israeli citizens to carry out such assassinations in exchange for payment. Sources report that more than one of the attempts was directed at Netanyahu.
Also, on Sept. 30, the ever-bizarre Bibi posted a video, “Address to the People of Iran,” on the social media platform American Rhetoric, in which he claimed that Israel stands with the Iranian people against “a regime that subjugates you, makes fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war,” adding that “when Iran is finally free—and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think—everything will be different.”
On Oct.1, the U.S. put out a warning of an imminent large missile and drone attack from Iran on Israeli tagets. As of this writing, no such attack has taken place. IDF spokesman said that they were prepared to deal with such an attack with their Iron Dome defense system, while the U.S. said that they were prepared to assist Israel in defending against such an attack, and warned Iran that if it took place Iran would "suffer serious conequences."
