May 27—There is a growing consensus among U.S. and Israeli intelligence specialists that the greatest threat to Israel’s security and that nation’s future existence is the continuation of the reign of its messianic and bloodthirsty Prime Minister, Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu.With Bibi facing a likely arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity in the conduct of his war, not against the terrorists of Hamas, but against innocent Palestinians, the majority of whom being women and children among the now more than 38,000 reported deaths, with more than double that wounded and maimed; and with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issuing an order May 24 to Israel that it “immediately halt” its Netanyahu-ordered “military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part,” there would appear to be a greater urgency for Israel to reach a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the latest round of talks, slated to begin in Cairo tomorrow. But Israeli-linked sources report that Bibi, who has sabotaged potential agreements in the past, may try to do so again.Then, on cue, Netanyahu ordered a strike on a target in Rafah where Hamas senior leaders were located, producing disastrous consequences: setting ablaze a tent encampment, killing at least 45 innocent civilians, and likely many more. While Bibi the Butcher called the results a “tragic error” and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) pledged a thorough investigation, the immediate result was that Hamas announced it was pulling out of the Cairo talks. It is not clear when or even if they can begin. Meanwhile, Bibi reaffirmed his commitment to continue IDF operations in Rafah until Hamas is destroyed.Bibi and those who back him in Israel and in the U.S. have sold the world on the narrative that this war, however ruthlessly they may conduct it, is a justified war of vengeance against the Hamas terrorists who carried out the murderous Oct. 7 attack that killed at least 1,200 innocent Israelis and others and took 240 hostage.“While the Israelis initially had widespread support for their attack on Hamas in Gaza,” a U.S. based intelligence source said, “the massive deaths of innocent Palestinians as ‘collateral damage,’ shown across all media platforms, have people worldwide demanding that it stop and that those leaders, including Bibi, be held accountable for the uncharacteristic apparent savagery in the Israel Defense Forces operations, and the humanitarian crisis created by its deliberate cutoff of supplies needed to keep the displaced Gazans alive.“Bibi’s fight was never against Hamas,” said the source, “but against what he perceives as the greater threat to Israel: the possibility of a viable Palestinian state, whose population would, he fears, overwhelm Israel. So he has conducted a military campaign to destroy that possibility, turning Gaza into an uninhabitable rubble heap, for what he hopes will be eternity, while killing as many Palestinians as possible to send a message to the nearly 10 millions diaspora, that they have nothing to return to or for. This is the outlook of a messianic lunatic who sees himself as the savior of Judea and its people. You will never get to peace, or on a pathway toward a real peace as long as he remains in office.”The source reported that President “Sleepy Joe” Biden could have pushed Netanyahu toward the exit, had he demanded that he reach a ceasefire agreement or face a cutoff of U.S. military aid. But, as is becoming increasingly more evident, Biden is incapable of decisive and complex action, and may even be incapable of anything at all. His main concern is the November election; and while a continuation of the war in Gaza, sources close to the White House report, will doom his chances among especially younger voters, he appears more afraid of a campaign against him by the moneybags of the so-called Zionist Lobby, and its front groups like the American Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC).So the White House delivers a mixed message, urging caution in the attack on Rafah (which it once claimed it opposed), while denouncing the ICC warrants for equating the Israeli crimes in Gaza with the actions of Hamas on Oct 7, and for demanding that those responsible for both be brought to the dock to be tried for crimes against humanity; and then the U.S. claims again that the ICJ order does not, as it does, call for a halt to the IDF Rafah operation.The new round of negotiations for a cease-fire, now stalled by the IDF attack in Rafah, came about from the work of America’s most able diplomat, CIA Director William Burns who met in Europe last week with his Shin Bet counterpart Ronen Bar. Burns was expected to present at the talks, and is also responsible for keeping the mediators from Egypt and Qatar in the process, after both threatened to walk away earlier this month when Bibi sabotaged what appeared to be an agreement. Now, in the wake of the new Rafah slaughter, there are rumblings again about Egypt pulling out, with Qatari representatives saying that the attack makes any agreement more difficult, if not impossible.Egypt’s Foreign Ministry condemned “Israeli forces’ deliberate bombing of displaced people’s tents … in a new and blatant violation of the provisions of international law.” Qatar called the strike a “grave violation of international laws that will aggravate the humanitarian crisis in the besieged Strip.” Jordan and Kuwait condemned “war crimes” committed by Israel in Gaza and urged the international community to compel Israel to adhere to the recent decision of the ICJ ordering Israel to stop any operation in Rafah that could threaten civilians.Burns, sources report, is aware that the leadership of the IDF and the Israeli intelligence services, including the Shin Bet have had their fill of Bibi and his anti-Palestinian crusade. They want the war over yesterday, and have taken to publicly contradicting the Prime Minister about what can still be accomplished by fighting, and how long it might take to totally eliminate Hamas, totally rejecting Bibi’s formerly expressed plan to keep the IDF in Gaza as a police force after the fighting stops.Now, War Cabinet member and former IDF general, Benny Gantz, who last week threatened to pull out of the government if Netanyahu could not present a viable post-war plan for the governance of Gaza by June 8, has called for the opening of a full judicial inquiry into the events leading up to and around Oct. 7 and the policy and conduct of the war in Gaza, to see who should be held accountable for crimes. The IDF has already been conducting its own inquiry into the events surrounding Oct. 7. Sources have previously reported that Bibi deliberately rejected intelligence in hand that gave him the plan for the attack, thus not allowing countermeasures and therefore assuring that the attack would succeed in giving him a pretext for his genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza.“In a well-ordered country, whoever is responsible for a failure like Oct. 7 says, on his own, thank you very much, and leaves” wrote commentator Chaim Levinson in Haaretz May 27. “There’s an old American concept, ‘it’s not done,’ which reflects basic norms. This concept no longer exists, neither in Israel nor in the United States, because the Bibi-ist camp has no basic norms. Netanyahu needs a rotten state because he is the fungus that grows on the rot.”Two high-profile right-wing pundits posted photos on X comparing the fatal blaze in Rafah to bonfires lit to celebrate the Jewish festival of Lag B’Omer, which was celebrated Sunday evening. One of them captioned their post: “Happy Holidays.” After widespread outrage, both later deleted their posts, reported Haaretz.“As I said, if they want peace—a peace with some honor that would also lead to a more permanent two-state solution, then the Israelis are going to have to deal with Bibi, said the intelligence source. “They will have the support and whatever help can be given from Burns, if not from the dithering fool in the White House. If an agreement is reached, the military leaders, Gantz, and [Defense Minister Yoav] Gallant will have to put it to Netanyahu, and demand he sign on, or face being frog marched out of the office, as a threat to the continued existence of Israel. They will have to deal with him and then deal with the religious crazies, [Minister of Finance Bezalel] Smotrich and [Minister of National Security Itamar] Ben-Gvir, crooks who should be locked up, who have been engaged in criminal acts with the settler gangs.“This has to be done soon, or you will have a civil war in Israel, which will help no one. For crying out loud, gangs of Bibi and Ben-Gvir supporters are beating up the families of the hostages! They beat a guy who lost his family, his wife, his son and daughter-in-law, his grandkids, all because he demanded an end to this insane war and a return of the hostages—alive and dead. How much longer can this continue, before the fabric of Israel is ripped apart?”Yechi Yahoud, the father of siblings Arbel and Dolev Yahoud, held hostage by Hamas in Gaza, said the government gave up on the hostages and is behaving like a guerrilla organization, adding that the hostages’ families “can only count on you, the public, to take to the streets en masse, go out and shout the cry of the hostages,” Haaretz quoted him. Scores of thousands in cities throughout Israel did just that over the weekend, with larger demonstrations planned.

May 26—Is the arc of the moral universe bending, with ever-greater curvature, toward justice? Yesterday, the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague ordered the State of Israel to cease its war-crime violations of international law being perpetrated by its military assault in Gaza, now known to be responsible for the deaths of over 35,000 people, and possibly thousands more among the 10,000 still declared missing. (There have been about another 1,000 killed in the West Bank as well since Oct 7.)Attorney Francis Boyle, professor of international law at the University of Illinois College of Law, and former representative of the nation of Bosnia and Herzegovina before the ICJ, in its Genocide Convention case against Yugoslavia, said: “Congratulations to the Republic of South Africa and to the International Court of Justice! (This is) Exactly what we need to stop the ongoing genocidal humanitarian catastrophe in Rafah at the United Nations Security Council and in the United Nations General Assembly under the Uniting For Peace Resolution.” Boyle is here referring to United Nations General Assembly Resolution 377 (V), adopted November 3, 1950.This resolution empowers the General Assembly to override the United Nations Security Council—in this case, specifically the United States—under conditions that the world deems immediate action to be essential, in order to preserve the international peace and security of the world. The United Nations website, regarding Emergency Special Sessions, says that Resolution 377 “Resolves that if the Security Council, because of lack of unanimity of the permanent members, fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security in any case where there appears to be a threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or active aggression, the General Assembly shall consider the matter immediately with the view to making appropriate recommendations to members for collective measures, including, in the case of a breach of the peace or active aggression, the use of armed force if necessary, to maintain or restore, international peace and security….”So, contrary to what many, if not most, were saying, or predicting, about the ineffectiveness of the student protests, the interventions against the likes of Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland, and the encampments and other acts of nonviolent resistance, including statements, resolutions, etc., something is indeed now changing and moving. Yes, the crime has not yet ceased, or even abated; but the moral universe, embodied in the ghost of Nelson Mandela and South Africa’s indictment of Israel, has spoken, and the world is beginning to respond.Francis Boyle has on previous occasions addressed the International Peace Coalition (IPC), an independent grouping convened by Schiller Institute Founder and chairwoman Helga Zepp-LaRouche. He was unable to do so Friday precisely because of the breaking ICJ development. The IPC meeting, titled “America is Dangerously Adrift. Can It Be Saved from Self-Destruction?” was addressed yesterday by Larry Johnson, Graham Fuller, and Ray McGovern, all veteran former analysts for the United States Central Intelligence Agency, as well being as members of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. VIPS is an organization that, since the illegal Anglo-American “preventive war” against Iraq, has sought to reverse the seemingly-unstoppable, but not inevitable, self-inflicted downward spiral of the United States.The three, along with LaRouche Independent candidate for Congress in New York City’s 15th Congressional District Jose Vega, engaged in an essential dialogue with Zepp-LaRouche, who has campaigned relentlessly for her Ten Principles for a New International Security and Development Architecture, designed to supersede the geo-strategic/geo-political outlook that is the standard, failing operating procedure of the Anglosphere. “Kissingerian” geo-politics is a sick mental relic from a bygone colonialist/imperial era, the main axiomatic system and catalyst provoking an otherwise-hapless “confederacy of dunces,” largely assembled around the State Department, into an inevitable thermonuclear exchange that may yet wipe humanity from the face of the Earth.Returning to the Court of Justice: Note that the week began this past Monday, May 20, with the announcement by International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan: “Today I am filing applications for warrants of arrest before Pre-Trial Chamber I of the International Criminal Court in the Situation in the State of Palestine.” He named three Hamas leaders, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant as targets of his warrants of arrest, and for criminal offenses against humanity, represented by their unjust killing of the people of Gaza.This was not appreciated by South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (R), the prototypical American Southern-fried jarhead, who was not much amused by the ICC prosecutor’s impartial view of justice. Nor were several of his Congressional colleagues, 12 of whom had earlier, on April 24, sent a letter that threatened repercussions against the ICC, if the Court dared to take the steps “bending toward justice,” which Khan requested. “Target Israel and we will target you,” they wrote. They further stated that they would bar Khan and his family from travel to the United States. “You have been warned,” the letter concluded.When Senator Graham this week remarked, that he and his Congressional colleagues “will find a way to register our displeasure with the ICC because if they’ll do this to Israel, we’re next,” his words were met with immediate, spontaneous, enthusiastic applause from protesters present, who deeply appreciated the prospect of Graham in the docks. Not pleased, Graham could only retort: “Yeah, you can clap all you want.”But here’s the question: Does Graham know something that he isn’t saying? How many times in the past five decades have Americans found out—or not—after the fact, about a “secret government” carrying out some massive crime somewhere in the world—as well as in the United States itself—in the name of “justice”? What if this time, though, it’s different—that the crime underway in Gaza, if interrupted as it transpires, reveals crimes not yet admitted? What if it reveals who—since it certainly isn’t Biden—and what unelected, “un-democratic” force, is actually presently running the United States?Perhaps something else underlies the American Democratic and Republican neo-cons’ frantic defense of Netanyahu, including their recent tone-deaf proposal to bring him to speak to a joint session of the U.S. Congress!! Maybe they should first consult with Israeli opposition figures in the Knesset. This week, about Netanyahu, Israeli politician Yair Lapid said, “Jews … were killed and murdered on (Netanyahu’s) watch, who is not willing to say: ‘I am guilty, I am responsible, I am going home.’ Your punishment, Mr. Netanyahu, is that this is how history will remember you. This is what you will be remembered for. For not taking responsibility, for not admitting your guilt. That you didn’t even know how to ask for forgiveness and leave at [the appropriate] time.”Are there Americans, formerly or presently in government service, whose judgment the world can afford to trust? There need to be, if any solution to the present crisis is to be found. IPC member Ray McGovern, who in the 1980s regularly briefed President Reagan and other Administration officials, described to the 51st IPC meeting today how he had been “surprised” by three unexpected occurrences in his intelligence evaluations of the past two years. There was the Russian special military operation (SMO) of Feb. 24, 2022, which he did not expect. “I pretend to a good bit of expertise, particularly on Russian and Soviet foreign policy. But, every now and then, I’m surprised.” He described the second occasion, as the seismic change in the relationship between Russia and China, as expressed in their memorandum of Feb. 4, 2022, and what McGovern described as a deep consultation between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping before the initiation of the SMO. This also surprised me, McGovern said. His third example: "More recently, I was really surprised that the Russians made it clear that they would be running exercises of non-strategic nuclear weapons—whoa!—tactical nuclear weapons. This was mentioned earlier, including by Helga. My God! I never would have expected that.“So, What’s the lesson I draw from this? One lesson is, that the Russians are dead serious about Ukraine. They’re not going to give up. And what they are trying to do is to tell the United States, these people with tin ears, look, we are so dead serious that we are willing to do an unprecedented step—and it is an unprecedented step.”Ironically, but lawfully, it is precisely Ray McGovern’s ability—any competent intelligence officer’s ability—to recognize the changes in reality, contrary to her/his assumptions, that qualifies them as the best sort of intelligence officer in a time of crisis. Indeed, that quality makes one a potential leader for an American, or any other, “patriotic” intelligence service, freed from neo-colonial, neo-imperial lethal flaws in thinking, contrary to the true interests one’s own nation, and of all forward-thinking nations. McGovern and his colleagues, those of the Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, are needed. They would be welcome in any dialogue with Russia, China, or any other nation in the world, which wishes to see an early end to “Anglo-American amateur hour,” before amateur hour puts an end to the world.Lyndon LaRouche had always believed that the American government required exactly such a liberation from the legacy of Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Samuel P. Huntington, and their intellectual “Great Mother,” the Harvard Anglophile and Confederate, William Yandell Elliott. The LaRouche Oasis Plan, and Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s Ten Principles, require an independent, daily international “Alert Service” to be established, which publishes the expanding dialogue that can rapidly correct the lethal axioms that have now been challenged by the ICJ and ICC to a degree, but which must be defeated for the world to survive even the rest of this year. “Whom the gods would destroy, the Truth must unbind.”

May 26—The United Nations’ International Court of Justice issued new orders May 24 in its ongoing case on South Africa’s charge of genocide by Israel in Gaza, ordering that Israel must immediately withdraw its military from the Rafah Governorate in Gaza, and must immediately open the Rafah crossing to Egypt and maximize the provision of humanitarian aid into Gaza.Israeli War Cabinet member Benny Gantz called U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday afternoon, May 24, and then issued a statement, which said, in part: Israel is “obligated to continue fighting to return its hostages and ensure the safety of its citizens, at any time and place—including in Rafah.” The U.S. State Department has not yet issued a statement. On Friday morning before the Court’s order, the Washington Post had reported the Biden Administration “straddling its own red line” by deciding to describe any level of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attack in Rafah as being “restricted.”Thus it appears that Israel and the United States, both signatories to the Charter of the United Nations which established the International Court of Justice as the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, intend to defy its orders and continue mass killing of Gaza’s population.Moreover, Israel’s Judge Aharon Barak—one of two ICJ judges who voted against the orders—claimed in an opinion that the orders do not actually mean that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must be withdrawn from Rafah “as long as it fulfills its obligations under the Genocide Convention”; and the German and Romanian judges (those from NATO countries), who voted for the orders, stated agreement with Barak’s  restricted interpretation of the World Court order.However, another legal source indicated that the language is clear: because of the danger the continued assault on Gaza's last standing city represents to civilian populations and their survival, the military offensive must be halted. The ICJ is sending its own investigators to the area to see what is happening; if they are convinced otherwise by events and circumstances on the ground, they could recommend that the ICJ alter its very clear order for Israel to halt its operations in and around Rafah. "There is a not a chance in hell that they will do that," said the source, who has followed the IDF actions in Gaza since October 2023. "The problem with this UN process is the enforcement of the order,"  said the source. "If the U.S> does not force Israel to comply, it is doubtful that the UN can do anything. The US would veto a call for a ceasefire from the Security Council and then how would the UN force Israel to comply.? Under any circumstances, say even if by some fancy maneuver, some supporters of the Palestinians, got the General Asembly to walk around the U.S. veto, do you think that the UN would be willing to raise an army of Blue Helmets to enforce the ceasefire? Where would they get the money for that? Not from the U.S. which provides a lion's share of UN funds. In fact, such an action might provoke an even worse crisis for the UN, with Congress, backed by Trump and similar types moving to pull the US out of the United Nations!"The issue is to use this decision to apply pressure for a change in policy in both the US and especially Israel," said the source. "Use this, and also the coming International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant against [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Bibi Netanyahu to force him out. There is a a growing opposition to his eternal crusade against the Palestinians, and its bloody result, coming from across Israeli society, including the military command. Opposition leader Lapid has said that Israel should never have been in the dock at the Hague. Instead, Bibi should have been forced out of office and tried for crimes against humanity by an Israeli court in Jerusalem, just as was done with the Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann. Peace will only come with a new more realistic government and change in stupid U.S. policy, which is too heavily influenced by dirty money fed political campaigns by Israeli conduits, such as the notorious American Israel Political Action Committee." Some critical sections of the World Court’s  decision, by a 13-2 vote by the panel of judges, follow:"Section 28. The Court notes that the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip which, as stated in its Order of 26 January 2024, was at serious risk of deteriorating, has deteriorated, and has done so even further since the Court adopted its Order of 28 March 2024. In this regard, the Court observes that the concerns that it expressed in its decision communicated to the Parties on 16 February 2024 with respect to the developments in Rafah have materialized, and that the humanitarian situation is now to be characterized as disastrous. After weeks of intensification of military bombardments of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians had fled as a result of Israeli evacuation orders covering more than three quarters of Gaza’s entire territory, on 6 May 2024, nearly 100,000 Palestinians were ordered by Israel to evacuate the eastern portion of Rafah and relocate to the Al-Mawasi and Khan Younis areas ahead of a planned military offensive. The military ground offensive in Rafah, which Israel started on 7 May 2024, is still ongoing and has led to new evacuation orders. As a result, according to United Nations reports, nearly 800,000 people have been displaced from Rafah as of 18 May 2024.“29. The Court considers that the above-mentioned developments, which are exceptionally grave, in particular the military offensive in Rafah and the resulting repeated large-scale displacement of the already extremely vulnerable Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, constitute a change in the situation within the meaning of Article 76 of the Rules of Court.”“46. [partial] On the basis of the information before it, the Court is not convinced that the evacuation efforts and related measures that Israel affirms to have undertaken to enhance the security of civilians in the Gaza Strip, and in particular those recently displaced from the Rafah Governorate, are sufficient to alleviate the immense risk to which the Palestinian population is exposed as a result of the military offensive in Rafah….“47. In light of the considerations set out above, and taking account of the provisional measures indicated in its Orders of 26 January 2024 and 28 March 2024, the Court finds that the current situation arising from Israel’s military offensive in Rafah entails a further risk of irreparable prejudice to the plausible rights claimed by South Africa and that there is urgency, in the sense that there exists a real and imminent risk that such prejudice will be caused before the Court gives its final decision….“50. The Court considers that, in conformity with its obligations under the Genocide Convention, Israel must immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”

May 26—In a one-hour discussion May 23, Schiller Institute science advisor and LaRouche Organization secretary-treasurer Jason Ross spoke with seven leaders of the Iran-based NGO, Organization To Defend Victims of Violence (ODVV) via internet, on the LaRouche Oasis Plan as the basis for peace in the region. ODVV’s interest in the Oasis Plan lies in how it can bring peace to the region. Ross gave them a tour d’horizon of the plan, and what will be built. He provided the “how” of its emergence: “This plan is possible because of the enormous transformation around the world,” by which he spoke of the “democratization” of international relations in the course of the “rules-based order” losing its power as more nations join the BRICS and countries of the Global South seek a new beginning.In addition to his plan overview, Ross introduced them to Lyndon LaRouche’s idea of the uniqueness of the human individual; demonstrated that the deadliest enemy in the region is lack of access to water; pointed to the role of the British Empire’s control of conflict in the region; touched on the Peace of Westphalia principles as key to ending intractable war; pointed to the role of the BRICS in bringing about a new paradigm; pointed to a resolution between the economic vs. political approach to conflict resolution; and identified the U.S. candidacies of Diane Sare for Senate from New York State and Jose Vega  for Congress from New York's 15 CD as examples of Americans standing up for justice.The first question from the audience came from a young, ebullient woman: “When links to this plan were first shared with me, I found it so attractive that I began researching it and came to my own conclusion that it is an inclusive, comprehensive plan ...And all the neighboring countries will benefit from it. So, my question is, what are the obstacles besides the U.S., which you mentioned?” Ross gave three key ones: 1) the historical role of the British in manipulating conflicts in the region as a means of control, to prevent land connectivity in this crossroads of the world; 2) Western countries’ resistance to infrastructure and growth in general; and 3) the notion of “scarcity,” or the environmentalist rejection of the creativity of the human mind creating new resources. Her follow-up question was to ask whether there are others, “like us,” who are interested in this, and is there any way we can support you in this effort? The best way, replied Ross, is to inject the plan into discussions everywhere. “Many people are now looking in horror at what’s happening in Gaza,” and they recognize the injustice. But, he remarked that key to breaking through the prevailing cynicism that “there will never be peace," is to “take a stand for a ‘Big Project.’ We have to have development for everybody.”The last question has been asked many times, in many venues: Your plan is very interesting because of its economic approach, but there are those with political will who are more powerful, willing to go for it? What is your next step to justify it in order to get governments to go with it? The economic benefits are clear, but political considerations do not always represent or act for actual self-interest. “Look at the domestic economies in the West,” answered Ross. “Energy prices are up, inflation is up, housing costs are up,” and their citizens are mistreated. He explained that the typical American, for example,  is “insular,” and therefore, whenever he speaks with Americans, he tells them the world is changing and that they could be a part of that change for the better. At this point he spoke of the Senate and House candidacies of Diane Sare and Jose Vega, who stand up for a true human morality.In closing the forum, the young woman who had asked the question about the obstacles to the Oasis Plan being realized concluded, “It is a promising plan and all countries will benefit from it. It will create more access to resources for everybody. With it we can say ‘good-bye’ to the era of war, killing, genocide, discrimination … and scarcity. If we can change minds, we can adopt a new approach.” She fulsomely thanked the Schiller Institute for its participation in the discussion.ODVV has been focused on how the genocidal war on Gaza has shredded international human rights. In November 2023, when the onslaught had just begun, they interviewed Schiller Institute board member Harley Schlanger on the role of international law in the conflict. Since then, they have remained in dialogue with us. When the Schiller Institute's  April 13 Oasis Plan conference invitation came out, they immediately posted it on their website. It was suggested that they hold a forum on the Oasis Plan with their networks. They responded, and today’s event was the first step in that process. 

May 26—This week’s 51st meeting of the International Peace Coalition (IPC) on May 24 saw a fruitful colloquy among some of the U.S.’s foremost intelligence experts: former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson; former U.S. diplomat, CIA official, and Islamic scholar Graham Fuller; and former CIA analyst and Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) co-founder Ray McGovern; all in dialogue with Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s strategic analysis—and proposed solutions—presented in her opening remarks. (See extended transcript of opening remarks.)Helga Zepp-LaRouche observed that we are in a time when “history becomes more dense,” and profound change is proceeding at an accelerating pace, even as the danger of nuclear war rises. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) today issued an emergency order to halt Israel’s attack on Rafah. “The question is, will that be enforced, and if so, how?” Zepp-LaRouche asked. “It seems to be dawning on some people in the Western establishment that if you apply a double standard … the legality of the system may be there, but it is about to lose its legitimacy.” This week Ireland, Spain, and Norway joined the list of 140 UN member nations that have recognized the State of Palestine. If Israel continues to flout the ICJ’s binding orders to stop the genocide in Gaza—as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has again sworn they will do—then Israel could be suspended from UN membership.Looking at other theaters of strategic confrontation carrying the danger of escalation into nuclear war, Zepp-LaRouche asked whether the attempt on the life of Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was made by a “lone assassin.” There are indications that he may have had assistance. Large influxes of money have flowed into NGOs, not only in Slovakia, but in Georgia, Serbia, and Hungary as well, whose leaders are all critical of Ukraine war funding, and are speaking out against the perpetrators of the destabilization operations. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze posted on Twitter/X that he received a threat from an EU Commission member, warning that he could meet the same fate as Fico.In Asia, newly inaugurated Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te gave an inaugural address in which he insisted that Taiwan is “a sovereign independent nation.” In response, China held military exercises around Taiwan, as a clear signal that they will not tolerate secession masquerading as “independence.” Zepp-LaRouche reminded the IPC participants that for decades, “‍One China” has been internationally recognized. She concluded by saying that the next six months will be decisive, and that we in the IPC, along with like-minded forces around the world, must put a different narrative, a different solution on the agenda, in the tradition of the Peace of Westphalia, using the Oasis Plan.Larry C. Johnson contrasted present U.S. foreign policy with the Nixon period, when, despite the Cold War, we could actually talk to Russia and China. Now, “The United States is like a 3-year-old child with a hammer,” and everything looks like a nail. He warned that if this continues, “the U.S. will implode upon itself…. It is pretending that it can project military force in three theaters simultaneously.” Our Navy is completely vulnerable to the hypersonic weapons that Russia and China both possess. Johnson insisted that “people in Asia, Africa and South America are sick and tired of being bullied by the United States.”Graham Fuller followed and said, “Larry and I have both toiled in the vineyards of intelligence.” Fuller said that the U.S. is unable to face the reality of its relative decline in the world. Referencing the “complicated, perhaps triangular relationship” in the Middle East between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, he observed that China had remarkably defused tension between the Saudis and Iran, which “took the wind out of the sails of the argument that ‘The Iranians are coming! The Iranians are coming!’”Fuller concluded by saying, “It’s a cliché to say crises promote opportunities,” but he offered the hope that this will shake people up to come up with some new ideas.Helga Zepp-LaRouche intervened to insist that it is our job to offer those new ideas. The Western nations act as if there were no tomorrow, no consequences, but “the way out would be so absolutely, breathtakingly easy.” She identified the expanding BRICS organization and the Oasis Plan as the path to a solution. None of the Global South nations has called the U.S. the enemy. We could work with them.Ray McGovern recalled that he had started working as a CIA analyst in January 1964, as a specialist in Sino-Soviet relations. China and Russia “were squeezing each other….” Now “they’re in a fraternal embrace that won’t stop.” He has been surprised by many things, including the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the Chinese support for it; and their announcement of tactical nuclear weapons exercises. “None were pleasant surprises; I’m just afraid of what the next one might be.”Meeting co-moderator Dennis Speed observed that these “surprises” represent the essence of intelligence work: the careful examination of “what doesn’t add up,” adding that the analyst must “poke reality with a stick,” and change the analysis as necessary. Read the EIR Daily Alert every day!During the discussion, one of the first comments centered on the overriding importance of Lyndon LaRouche’s breakthroughs in economics, and praise of LaRouche by leading Russian economist Sergey Glazyev. Independent Congressional candidate Jose Vega, who has just successfully filed three times the required number of signatures required to attain ballot access, reported on his visits to New York campus encampments protesting the genocide in Gaza. LaRouche movement organizer Bill Ferguson reported on the May 23 Harvard commencement exercises: Trucks were driving around with neon signs denouncing as anti-Semites the 1,000 students who walked out to support 13 seniors barred from graduation over their role in the Gaza protests. LaRouche organizers displayed a banner: “Peace through Development: Build LaRouche’s Oasis Plan.” After the LaRouche organizers choral performance of peace songs, a policeman approached, saying “You’ve got really killer voices,” encouraging them to keep it up.An Indian journalist elaborated on the importance of unity among the three, largest and founding members of the BRICS—Russia, India, China (RIC)—and pointed to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), extending from St. Petersburg through Iran and Central Asia, across the Arabian Sea to Mumbai in India, as an example of regional cooperation, notwithstanding the tensions in the region. Helga Zepp-LaRouche concurred: “The anchor of stability is the connectivity projects,” such as the BRICS and BRICS-Plus.Other participants expressed anxiety about the U.S. presidential election. One person suggested that Biden might be the lesser evil; another stated the opposite. Co-moderator Dennis Small said that the very concept of the “lesser evil” comes from Aristotle, who did not believe in the Good. Throw Aristotle in the trash, and read Plato, to learn how to think from a higher vantage point from which the Good is attainable, was his advice. Zepp-LaRouche suggested support for independent candidates like Jose Vega and Diane Sare, concurring with Sare that no candidate running is qualified to be President of the United States. She added, “I would not bet the fate of the world on these election processes.” The confiscation of Russian assets may trigger an unprecedented financial crisis which will upset the applecart. Our efforts should concentrate on the proposed new international security and development architecture and the Oasis Plan. Echoing the comments of a participant from Mali, she said that we must “put the One Humanity first.” 

May 26—Over the course of Wednesday night and Thursday morning [May 22-23], Ukrainian drones struck the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai region, a part of Russia’s early warning radar system designed to detect an incoming ICBM attack. This radar is one of the pillars in Russia’s nuclear posture system which, along with other such installations, plays an existential role in the strategic security of the Russian Federation. Far beyond escalating tensions with Ukraine alone, this attack has now brought the world another step closer to the verge of a thermonuclear war.Russian Senator and former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin responded to this development by noting that, while one could imagine a Ukrainian were behind this, in reality it is Washington that has “hired an irresponsible bandit” to carry out its dirty work. “Thus, we stand not only on the precipice, but on the very edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin,” Rogozin wrote on his Telegram channel.This madness must be stopped now. The Armavir attack occurred just days after Russia carried out high-profile tactical nuclear military exercises, as if to declare to President Putin: “You are bluffing.” Playing a nuclear chicken game while threatening to destroy a nuclear superpower which is already at war, threatens to annihilate the entire human species.Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, in addressing a meeting of the International Peace Coalition on May 24, drew people’s attention to the solutions to the crisis. She insisted we must end the West’s belief in geopolitics, which has made people believe that Russia and China are our enemies, and instead establish a new security and development architecture that respects the interests of all nations. “If that cannot be overcome, I’m afraid that the chances we will end up in World War III are approaching 100%,” she said.Numerous military and intelligence specialists consulted by the Schiller Institute have expressed their grave concern over the meaning of the Armavir attack and its consequences:“The Russian satellite-based early warning system is very limited and cannot be used to cover the blind spots created by damage to the radar. The Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern radar warning corridors are more important, and the Russians also have radars in Moscow. However, the radars in Moscow will only see threats at a later time, resulting in yet shorter warning and decision-making times—thereby increasing the chances of a catastrophic accident.“The commanders of the Strategic Rocket Forces, who serve the political leaders, will be really, really concerned, and they will have no choice but to treat this situation as quite serious. They will almost certainly choose to operate their nuclear strike forces at a higher level of alert, which will further increase the chances of accidents that could lead to an unintended global nuclear war.”• Dr. Theodore Postol, Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology and National Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, nuclear weapons expert:“The U.S. has begun directing missile attacks on the Russian nuclear Early Warning System (EWS), which is made up of a series of ground-based radars and satellites… ANY such attacks against these EWS systems could trigger the Russian nuclear response system. So this U.S.-directed attack is insanely dangerous. Washington is playing nuclear chicken with Russia.“The site attacked was within range of the U.S. ATACMS; I don’t know if any other similar Russian facilities are within range of the ATACMS, or possibly even the German Taurus missiles, which have a longer range than the ATACMS and the U.K. Storm Shadow missiles. Unfortunately, we may soon find out, as the madmen in Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels seem determined to start World War 3.”• Steven Starr, Professor, University of Missouri, expert on nuclear war“There are obviously forces in Ukraine and also in NATO that are prepared to take the risk of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. German politicians would be well advised to take the Russians’ warnings of a new world war seriously and ensure that the final red lines are not crossed. As a modern industrialized country at the heart of Europe, Germany is unfit for war in a major European conflict—even without nuclear weapons. German politicians must do everything in their power to de-escalate the increasing military confrontation and commit themselves to a diplomatic solution to the conflict.”• Colonel (ret.) Prof. Dr. Wilfried Schreiber, Senior Research Fellow at the WeltTrends Institute for International Politics, Potsdam, Germany“This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate. This is not accidental, but very deliberate. It is not the first attack on the Russian nuclear triad. The ideological folks are seeing their world crumbling, after flying the rainbow flag over conservative countries and [waging] perpetual wars. They are frantic and could escalate to nuclear war to get out of the bind. They are taking a series of baby steps, and respond that ‘they don’t do anything in response,’ and so they keep taking baby steps until one of them lands on a land mine and we are into World War III. I’ve said it, Helga [Zepp-LaRouche] has said it. Putin is very aware of the disconnect in the West, who keep saying he is just saber rattling, but he is not—he is informing the West of the dangerous reality.”• Col. (ret.) Richard H. Black, former state senator from Virginia“I expect that the U.S. military, faced with a vital situation, are going to behave more reasonably and consciously than the civilians.”• Gen. (ret.) Dominique Delawarde, Intelligence expert, France“This clearly could not have happened without full U.S. support. I can’t comment adequately until I learn more, but it is obviously escalatory, and I will look into it.”• Graham Fuller, former diplomat, CIA officer, and vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council“They’re on an escalating treadmill, especially after what Blinken told Ukraine—they could ‘do what they want with their missiles.’ It demonstrates the irresponsible American leadership. We’re headed for the nuclear escalator. The West is facing defeat in Ukraine, and therefore they’re escalating to avoid defeat.”• Prof. Richard Sakwa, Emeritus Professor of Russian and European Politics, Kent University (U.K.); prolific author on Russia and Ukraine“I just watched BBC and there’s nothing on BBC about this. And especially they’re on an escalating treadmill, especially after what Blinken told Ukraine: ‘They can do what they want with their missiles.’ It demonstrates the irresponsible American leadership. We’re headed for the nuclear escalator. The West is facing defeat in Ukraine and therefore they’re escalating to avoid defeat. You can quote me.”